Dick's Blog

Weather and Health

2012-01-25T11:44:00.001+11:00

It has long been recognised that the weather can affect our general mood and feelings of well-being. Cabin fever is a well-known psychological condition arising from an extended period of inclement weather that forces people to remain indoors. Symptoms include irritability, forgetfulness, excessive sleeping, and in extreme cases, paranoia.

Prolonged spells of hot weather are often associated with a spike in human mortality, particularly for the very young, the very old or the ill, and it is believed that so called heat waves are responsible for more human deaths than the more spectacular weather events such as hurricanes, tornados and gales.

Washington citizens cool off in a fountain during the heat wave of 2010.

Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge

Increases in domestic violence also appear to cluster during hot spells, with irritability rising during these times. Increased consumption of alcohol may also be a factor here.

But it is also suspected that weather can influence our general health in a variety of other ways and this has proven a fascinating area of research since the mid nineteenth century.

An academic study was undertaken soon after the American Civil War by the eminent Philadelphian physician Dr. S. W. Mitchell who was interested in the effect of weather on war wounds and limb amputations. He observed that falling barometric pressure, together with rising temperature and humidity, frequently produced neuralgic pains in amputees.

Dr. Silas Weir Mitchell, c 1875

Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge

This observation was reinforced some 70 years later in an experiment performed by a German meteorologist Otto Hoflich. He correlated the pains experienced by a World War II soldier, Claus Thurkow, with the prevailing weather situation. Thurkow had lost his right arm during the War, and under instructions from Hoflich, kept a detailed diary on the dates and times when he experienced pain in the stump of his arm. The results were similar to Mitchell's conclusions regarding Civil War veterans.

It is believed that other conditions producing pain in the various joints of the human body, such as arthritis and gout, may also be weather sensitive, perhaps responding to changes in barometric pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

An acute case of rheumatoid arthritis

Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge

Perhaps the most surprising weather correlations that have been observed concern the beginning and cessation of life itself. Statistical correlations between the weather and coronary thrombosis (heart attack) have been demonstrated, usually involving conditions experienced with the approach of a cold front. Obviously weather is not the primary cause but perhaps the falling barometric pressure associated with an approaching cold front can trigger the onset of an attack in a person whose heart is critically poised because of disease.

Paradoxically, similar weather conditions appear to also precipitate the beginning of life with a statistically relevant correlation appearing between falling barometric pressure and the onset of spontaneous labour in childbirth.

The onset of spontaneous labour in childbirth could be triggered by weather conditions.

Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge

Although the actual mechanisms involved in these situations are not understood, the statistics point to connections that demonstrate weather affects us in a whole variety of indirect ways.

Perhaps in addition to the usual information, weather forecasts of the future will contain neuralgia advices, arthritis alerts and gynaecological warnings.

Reference: Weather, Climate and You, H. E. Landsberg, Weatherwise, Vol 39, Issue 5, 1986

Young Griffo - Zephyr of the Ring

2012-01-15T12:44:00.018+11:00

One of Australia’s earliest but least known world champions was the extraordinary Albert Griffiths, popularly known at the time as “Young Griffo”.

He was born in Millers Point, in Sydney’s Rocks district in 1871, and he lived and grew up in the immediate area. The Rocks in those days was not the pleasant historical locale so enjoyed by tourists today, but was a rough and dangerous neighbourhood, with general crime and street muggings commonplace, particularly after dark.

"The Rocks" in Sydney during the 1880's. A dangerous place to be after dark.

Courtesy of the Council of the City of Sydney - click to enlarge

The notorious “Rocks Push”, a dangerous larrikin gang, ruled the streets by night, and fought with other local gangs such as the Argyle Cut Push, the Forty Thieves and the Straw Hat Push. These gangs had no compunction in knocking a passer by down and then “putting the boot in”, often seriously injuring or even killing the victim.

Henry Lawson, in his classic poem "The Captain of the Push"described something of the after-dark environment of "the Rocks" late in the 19th Century:

As the night was falling slowly down on city, town and bush,

From a slum in Jones's Alley sloped the Captain of the Push;

And he scowled towards the North, and he scowled towards the South,

As he hooked his little finger in the corners of his mouth.

Then his whistle, loud and shrill, woke the echoes of the `Rocks',

And a dozen ghouls came sloping round the corners of the blocks.

There was nought to rouse their anger; yet the oath that each one swore

Seemed less fit for publication than the one that went before.

For they spoke the gutter language with the easy flow that comes

Only to the men whose childhood knew the brothels and the slums.

Then they spat in turns, and halted; and the one that came behind,

Spitting fiercely on the pavement, called on Heaven to strike him blind.

It was in this rough and dangerous environment that Young Griffo grew up. As a youth he earned some money as a paper boy working the Rocks area, and to be successful he had to not only sell newspapers, but to defend his turf against bigger and older boys trying to muscle in on his corner. Despite his small height - only about five feet four - he was nuggety and powerful, and possessed amazing reflexes that gave him the ability to pick a fly out of the air without injuring it. The other older and larger boys learned to leave him alone or risk copping a beating.

It is not known whether he regularly attended school – being from the wrong side of the tracks in 1870’s Sydney probably meant not, and he was recorded as being completely illiterate and unable to count.

He was eventually talked into becoming a prize fighter, and with some coaching, began to improve rapidly. He turned professional in 1886, and soon strung together an impressive series of wins in the featherweight division. He became Australian featherweight champion in 1888, and then in 1890, won the world championship when he beat titleholder Bill Murphy at the Sydney Amateur Gymnastic Club.

Young Griffo, circa 1888. Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge.

He then decided to head for the big money in the United States, finally arriving there in 1893, and began an unforgettable career there that would have many highs and lows. During this time he fought nearly all of the greats of his division and piled up an incredible record. Many of his fights were with men much heavier than himself, but he still won the vast majority of these.

His style in the ring fascinated the Americans. Although lacking a knockout punch he was a defensive genius and in an article in the Tacoma Daily News, later written in 1916, he was described thus:

“Not known as much of a puncher, but his skill was uncanny. He had wonderful headwork, almost impenetrable defence, dazzling feints, and rapid two-handed methods of attack. The cleverest boxers and hardest punchers were made to look ridiculous when exchanging swats with him.”

He amassed considerable prize money during this time, but his inability to count meant that he was short changed on occasion, with unscrupulous promoters giving him less than his entitlement. He was also generous and would often "shout the bar" after a win, going through his prize money in quick time.

And it was his drinking that was destined to later bring him down. He always preferred alcohol to training, and American whiskey proved to be a wonderful attraction. He began drinking heavily, and several of his important fights were performed when he was half drunk, but mostly he was still able to win despite his self imposed handicap.

Albert Griffiths c 1893
Image courtesy of the National Library of Australia

As Demon Drink gradually took control he found himself increasingly in trouble with the law for being drunk and disorderly, and was locked up on several occasions.

After his last fight in 1904, and with his main income stream at an end, he became virtually destitute and took to begging on the steps of the Rialto Theatre, in New Yorks Time Square. He would also raise money in saloons by standing on a handkerchief and betting drinkers that they could not hit him even though he would not move his feet from the handkerchief. But as the years passed he was hit more often.

Times Square in 1921 - a massive crowd follows the progress of the Jack Dempsey - Georges Carpentier bout. Young Griffo may well have been present on this day. Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge

Young Griffo finally died in New York in 1927, at the age of fifty six, with the well known boxing promoter Tex Rickard generously paying for his funeral. Noted boxers from the past were in attendance, including the former heavy weight champion “Gentleman Jim” Corbett, who remarked as the coffin was carried out “ There he is boys, the Zephyr of all ring time. The only one that ever hit him was the Grim Reaper”. He was buried in the Bronx on that day.

The record he left behind was incredible. He lost just nine times in 232 fights, but with many of his bouts recorded as a “no contest”. However during this era a fight would be declared a “no contest” if the opponent was not knocked out, and in many of these Griffo was well ahead on points.

Albert Griffiths c 1926 - shortly before his death.
Image courtesy of the National Library of Australia

He was also a pioneer of he the practice, later made famous by the great Muhammad Ali, of nominating the number of rounds the fight would last before he emerged the victor.

Griffo was never defeated for either the world or Australian featherweight title.

In 1928 the founder of Ring Magazine, Nat Fleisher, wrote a book called “Young Griffo: the will o’wisp of the Roped Square” in which he noted that “Griffo was the greatest ever boxer I have seen in over fifty years of watching fights and fighters. His abilities to feint, move his head and not get hit were unparalleled”.

Fleischer also described Griffo as “the Shakespeare and Napoleon of his profession”, and “the fastest thinking, brainless boxer in the history of pugilism”. Fleischer ranked Griffo as number 8 in the all time featherweight division.

Mike Casey, the Boxing Journalist and Historian, writing for “East Side Boxing”, remarked that “Griffo seemed to drop straight out of some fistic heaven, and perhaps the gods were balancing the scales when they took him back at the age of fifty six. The mind boggles at what he could have achieved if he had been blessed with the mental toughness and the total commitment of a Julio Cesar Chavez or a Marco Antonio Barrera”.

Young Griffo was posthumously inducted into the Ring Boxing Hall of Fame in 1954, the International Boxing Hall of Fame in 1991 and the Australian National Boxing Hall of Fame in 2003. His citation for the International Boxing Hall of Fame can be read here:

http://www.ibhof.com/pages/about/inductees/oldtimer/griffo.html

(Note that this citation gives his date of birth as 1869, whereas most other sources quote 1871)

In an era when many bronze statues are sculpted for a variety of cricket and football stars from the past it would, I think, be a fitting tribute to erect one for Albert Griffiths, standing on a corner or in a park somewhere down in the Rocks. As Australia's first ever world boxing champion and arguably one of our greatest ever fighters, made all the more remarkable by his battle up through poverty and lack of education to get there, he deserves some formal recognition from our city fathers.

And surely a movie awaits for an interested producer.

Flight without Engines

2012-01-11T07:13:00.017+11:00

Nearly all of us are used to flying around the country, and indeed the world, in the amazing modern aircraft that are such triumphs of engineering and with the modern jet engine making it all possible.

But there is another stream of engineering considerably older, that achieves flight without the use of engines, and this has produced a number of fascinating machines throughout the years.

In ancient times many attempts at flight were made using various contraptions with men leaping from cliffs using frantically flapping wings or rudimentary gliders, with the results often being fatal.

Early attempt at flight using eagles wings – these experiments often ended in disaster. Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

However there are existing reports that men flew in primitive gliders as long ago as the 11^th century, with the English Benedictine Monk Eilmer reported as having glided for some 200 metres in his winged machine in about 1005.

But the first properly documented human ascent using a machine was a tethered hot air balloon that lifted Etienne Montgolfier from the ground at Faubourg Saint Antoine, in France, on October 17^th 1783.

Reproduction of the Montgolfier balloon that produced the first successful human ascent in 1783. Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge.

This was the forerunner of the engineless hot air balloons that are still used up to the present day, particularly for tourist joy riding.

Kites, which are a form of tethered aircraft, were also used to lift people from the ground, possibly in quite ancient times.

The Australian engineer, Lawrence Hargrave, lifted himself some 5 metres from the ground at Stanwell Park in NSW in 1894 using a train of 6 box kites acting in tandem.

Hargrave used a chain of box kites to lift himself off the ground at Stanwell Park in 1894. Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

In 1866, the Polish carpenter Jan Wnek built and piloted a glider that was launched from the top of a local church tower. He successfully flew into the valley below on several occasions and this was the forerunner of ever more sophisticated aircraft that are now widely used as a popular type of recreation. As far as aerodynamics is concerned, the modern glider is the ultimate in flying without engines.

A modern high performance glider constructed of fibreglass. Image form Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge.

Particularly fascinating examples of engineless flying machines arose from a prize offered to the first individual who could fly a figure eight course of 1 mile (1.6 km) powered entirely by human means. This prize, of $100,000, was finally won by the American engineer Paul Macready who designed the Gossamer Condor in 1977, using a pedal powered configuration.

Another more substantial challenge was proposed – to design and construct the first human powered aircraft to cross the English Channel, and this incredible feat was also achieved by a Macready designed machine, the Gossamer Albatross in 1979.

This pedal powered aircraft crossed the Channel in just under 3 hours at an average altitude of 1.5 m (5 feet). For amazing footage of this historic event see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ketusOFabb4

The Gossamer Albatross in flight, 1979. Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

The spectacular evolution of the so-called “hang glider” has also produced a fascinating variant of engineless flight. One of the main pioneers of hang gliding was Otto Lilienthal, a German aviation pioneer who succeeded in producing and flying a hang glider back in the 1890’s. Tragically he was later killed when his glider stalled in flight and he fell to his death.

Otto Lilienthal in flight from a hill - circa 1890.
Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge.

The modern hang glider, the result of continuous developments of Lilienthal’s work over the last 100 years, incorporates increased knowledge of avionics and evolving hi tech materials and has become a fabulous engineless flying machine.

It consists of a rigid aluminium frame upon which is mounted a flexible fabric wing and harness that holds the pilot.

It can be foot launched, simply by jumping off an elevation, or launched by towing behind a winch or boat. Depending on the skill of the pilot, and the prevailing conditions, modern hang gliders can soar for prolonged periods of time, reach heights above 5000 metres and travel for hundreds of kilometres across country.

A high performance hang glider in flight. Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

A close relation to the hang glider is the paraglider – a type of hybrid cross between a paraglider and parachute. Unlike the hang glider, this aircraft has no rigid primary structure but consists of a flexible fabric wing to which a harness is attached that supports the pilot. This aircraft is normally foot launched and extended flights over hundreds of kilometres at altitudes of several thousand metres are routinely attained through skilful use of atmospheric conditions.

A paraglider high above the ground. Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

Over the last 30 years or so there has been a proliferation of engineless flight vehicles, all made possible by increased knowledge of aerodynamics and the invention of lighter and stronger materials.

An interesting speculation concerns the antiquity of engineless aircraft. The balloonist Julian Nott raised the possibility that hot air balloons could have been by the Peruvian Nazca people of 1500 years ago to help them design their large ground motifs that depict spiders, monkeys, fish, sharks and various lines, some of which are plainly visible from space.

The Nazca ground motif depicting a monkey – image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge.

As mentioned above, primitive gliders could have been in use in the 11^th century and kites that lifted people off the ground were within range of the technology of the ancient Chinese. Also the use of bamboo and silk was well known to the Chinese of ancient times. Could a hang glider be built from these materials? Both are light and strong and it raises the possibility that devices such as these could have been built long ago but not recorded.

Therefore, engineless flight in its various forms could theoretically have been performed long before we currently understand and this is an area of speculation being investigated by various historians.

The Most Dangerous Animal

2012-01-03T21:28:00.009+11:00

I still have a copy of a great book I first read many years ago, called “Hunter”, by Mr. J.A Hunter, Game Warden of Kenya between 1923 and 1949.

In this he describes his unique experiences with African wildlife during which time he was required to control aggressive animals that were threatening the local populations. Later in his career Hunter accompanied wild life photographers as a sort of “armed guard”, in case an animal charged the cameraman.

In his job as Game Warden Hunter shot and killed many African animals, but in the later years of his life he became heavily in favour of animal protection and his book “Hunter” describes part of his journey from shooter to conservationist.

During his 25 years in the African bush, Hunter assembled an extensive knowledge of African animals, particularly those large enough to be dangerous to humans, and provided his opinion on which are the most dangerous. The results are a little surprising.

Hunter rated the big five African land animals – the elephant, rhinoceros, buffalo, lion and leopard in order of their danger to humans, taking into account their temperament, physical abilities and likelihood of being stopped if charging. He did not include the crocodile or hippopotamus because these are semi aquatic and although highly dangerous, were not classed as land animals.

Here is his rating, from least to most dangerous, taking all these factors into account.

The elephant was rated as the least dangerous. Because of its superior intelligence, the animal normally tries to avoid contact with humans, but when charging presents a large and easy to hit target for a human. However on occasion, if aware of being followed by a hunter, the beast will double back in a semi circle and wait motionless and in complete silence by the trail, waiting for the human to pass. A sudden charge from this position can produce terrible results.

The African elephant: intelligent, powerful and on occasion, highly dangerous. Image from Wikipedia commons - click to enlarge.

The rhino was next on the list. Extremely unpredictable, the rhino will charge with little or no provocation, but like the elephant is relatively easy to hit with a rifle because of its bulk. A rhinos charge is usually one way, and it will not normally turn back for a second attempt at goring his victim.

The rhinoceros - a massive and aggressive tank like creature. Image from Wikipedia commons - click to enlarge.

Then came the buffalo – classed by many as the most dangerous of all African land animals but not by Hunter. He noted that this beast is certainly extremely dangerous to humans, and is capable of exhibiting highly aggressive and unpredictable behaviour. It will charge without warning and if successful in knocking his target down, will, unlike the rhino, return to gore and trample the victim. Hunter also noted that a buffalo has all his basic senses highly developed. “A buffalo can see, hear and scent equally well. A terrible combination”. The buffalo will on occasion, like the elephant, double back and wait silently in the bush for the following hunter to pass by and then charge explosively from point blank range.

The African buffalo - huge, aggressive and unpredictable.
Image from Wikipedia commons - click to enlarge.

However, as with the rhino, the buffalo presents a large target that can usually be stopped with a well-aimed gunshot.

Hunter then discussed what he considered the two most dangerous animals of the big five.

He rated the lion as the second most dangerous land animal in Africa. This big cat can charge a human at great speed, often from positions close by where his presence has been carefully concealed by camouflage, absolute stillness and silence. His teeth and large claws are devastating weapons and it presents a considerably smaller target than an elephant, rhino of buffalo.

Strangely a lion can be sometimes chased from a kill in the wild but Hunter noted that it would usually fight to the death to defend the kill of domestic livestock.

The African lion - a fast and deadly member of the big cat family.
Image from Wikipedia commons - click to enlarge.

Only one animal, in Hunters view, is more dangerous, and this is, perhaps surprisingly, the leopard. Although much smaller than a lion, this cat is cunning and ruthless, and will attack a human without hesitation should the need arise. Its comparatively smaller size by no means reduces its danger to humans, with its large fangs and claws, coupled with a flashpoint disposition, lightning reflexes and complete lack of fear of humans providing a lethal combination. Its smaller size and rocket speed attacks make it extremely difficult to stop with a rifle, and often the leopard is upon the human before any weapon can be used.

In addition, leopard’s claws are often infected from contact with putrid meat and will more often than not produce infected wounds in a human. Leopards also have a great attraction for dogs and will readily risk contacts with humans in order to grab and carry away a domestic dog.

Public enemy numer one - the fast and cunning leopard.
Image from Wikipedia commons - click to enlarge.

The leopard is a master at concealment and its mottled fur provides near perfect camouflage in the dappled light of a bush environment. And the fact that it is adept at climbing trees, means that unlike lions, it can attack from above, greatly increasing the problems for a following human.

Hunter concluded “ All in all I know of no beast that I would less wish to hunt in cover than the fast, savage, cunning leopard”.

For a terrible example of how much damage a single leopard can do to several humans, check out

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/attacked-by-a-leopard-victim-says-he-was-trying-to-save-animal-20120110-1ps8y.html

The big five beasts referred to above were heavily hunted, in some cases almost to extinction, during the first half of the twentieth century, but are now widely protected. As Hunter remarked “Such is the strange way that man works – first he virtually destroys a species, and then does everything in his power to restore it”.

Reference: “Hunter”, by J. A. Hunter, Hamish Hamilton, London, 1952

Star of India - Srinivasa Ramanujan

2011-12-12T21:02:00.014+11:00

One of the most remarkable individuals in the history of mathematics must surely be the Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan, (1887 – 1920) who overcame almost insurmountable difficulties to become one of the great mathematicians of history.

Srinivasa Ramanujan, circa 1915 (Image: Wikipedia Commons – Click to enlarge)

Born into very poor circumstances, Ramanujan was a Brahmin, the highest caste of Indian society, traditionally associated with high academic knowledge and intellectual achievement.

But lack of available money made it difficult for him to progress to higher education and, as a result, he conducted research into mathematics, his favourite subject, virtually on his own. Using old textbooks, he developed his own style and notation and commenced research into several diverse areas of number theory.

He received a little encouragement when some of his early work was published in the Journal of the Indian Mathematical Society. He also sent several of his papers to prominent mathematicians around the world but with little result. His style of non-standard notation and presentation of results without proof probably counted against him.

But then, in January 1913, he wrote to the prominent English mathematician, G. H. Hardy, who was then resident at Trinity College, Cambridge University.

G. H. Hardy – prominent English mathematician (Image: Wikipedia Commons – Click to enlarge)

Hardy later recalled that one night after dinner, he and his colleague J. E. Littlewood, sat down to study and try to unravel the jumble of strange formulae that Ramanujan had mailed them.

As Hardy read through the document he became increasingly astounded. He recognised that Ramanujan had derived several results in pure mathematics already known, but using hitherto unheard of techniques. But of even more significance was the fact that there were several results quoted without proof, that were, to Hardy's knowledge, entirely new to mathematics.

Hardy immediately invited Ramanujan to Trinity College, but this created some problems. Brahmins were not supposed to travel across the ocean, but somehow Ramanujan was able to attain a dispensation. He was also a strict vegetarian and this was due to create problems with the typical meat- rich English diet.

Trinity College, Cambridge (Image: Wikipedia Commons – Click to enlarge)

Nevertheless Ramanujan arrived at Cambridge in April 1914, and began a collaboration with Hardy that was to produce some of the great advances in number theory. Hardy’s careful orthodox approach, using rigorous methodology, when combined with the sheer brilliance of Ramanujan, produced a cascade of important results. These included the Ramanujan Prime and the Ramanujan Theta functions, both of which led to major areas of further research by other mathematicians. The Hardy-Ramanujan asymptotic formula was used widely in thermodynamics and atomic physics more than a quarter of a century later.

Ramanujan was in poor health for much of his life, made worse by the fact that a vegetarian diet was difficult to maintain in early 20^th century England. He spent considerable periods in hospital and it was in one such stay he was visited by Hardy, who later recalled

“I remember once going to see him when he was ill at Putney. I had ridden in taxi cab number 1729 and remarked that the number seemed to me rather a dull one, and that I hoped it was not an unfavourable omen. "No," he replied, "it is a very interesting number; it is the smallest number expressible as the sum of two cubes in two different ways."

Ramanujan had instantly seen that

1729 = (1x1x1) + (12x12x12) and that also

1729 = (9x9x9) + (10x10x10)

The number 1729 is now known as the Hardy-Ramanujan number.

Recognition of number patterns such as this was Ramanujan's specialty and his skill in this domain has never been surpassed.

Ramanujan went on to produce nearly 4000 important results in number theory, was made a Fellow of the Royal Society and became the first Indian to be elected a Fellow of Trinity College at Cambridge University. Tragically he died at the young age of 34 at Kumbakonam, back in his native India. There is little doubt that he would have contributed even more to mathematics, given an average life span.

Ramanujan's home on Sarangapani Street, Kumbakonam. (image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

Hardy, his mentor, later rated him as one of the great mathematicians of history, comparing him to Gauss, Newton and Archimedes. This was made all the more remarkable by the difficult nature of the journey he had to take along the way.

Late in 2011, the Prime Minister of India, Dr. Manmohan Singh, announced that December 22, the anniversary of Ramanujans birthday, would be declared "National Mathematicians Day", and that 2012, the 125th year since Ramanujan's birth, would be known in India as the "National Mathematical Year".

This is a fitting tribute to one of the great mathematicians of both India and human history.

Famous Weather Quotes

2011-12-04T16:20:00.007+11:00

Weather is supposedly humanity’s most discussed topic and when we look at the effect it has across a wide variety of human affairs, this is hardly surprising. And up until the emergence of climate change as a public issue, weather was also one of the few “neutral” topics available for general discussion.

A summer thunderstorm produces shafts of rain across the countryside

(Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

If you meet a stranger it’s usually poor form to attempt a discussion on religion or politics, but the weather is normally a safe area; people often have definite ideas on the topic but without being offended by a differing view.

As a result, many of the great minds of the past and present have offered their views on the weather, often in a humorous and witty manner greatly enjoyed by meteorologists. Here are a few examples:

“Weather is a great metaphor for life - sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, and there's nothing much you can do about it but carry an umbrella.” - Terri Guillemets

“The best thing one can do when it's raining is to let it rain.”

- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

“Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.”

- Kin Hubbard

Mark Twain in his latter years – 1907

(Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

“It is best to read the weather forecast before praying for rain.”

- Mark Twain

"Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it."

- Mark Twain

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”

- Mark Twain

“No matter how rich you become, how famous or powerful, when you die the size of your funeral will still pretty much depend on the weather”.

- Michael Pritchard

“The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.”

- Patrick Young

“Conversation may be compared to a lyre with seven chords - philosophy, art, poetry, love, scandal, and the weather.”

- Anna Jameson

“Change of weather is the discourse of fools.”

- Thomas Fuller

Photograph of Oscar Wilde taken in 1882

(Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

“Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.”

- Oscar Wilde

“If I'm on the course and lightning starts, I get inside fast. If God
wants to play through, let him”

– Bob Hope

Bob Hope entertains the military in 1990 – with his golf club

(Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

With the emergence of the somewhat more controversial issue of climate change, perhaps a similar reservoir of insight and wit on this topic will be gradually taken up by our modern day philosophers and observers.

The Brighton Shark Attack of 1930

2011-11-27T18:38:00.004+11:00

When I was a young boy, my father, who had been a regular swimmer around Port Phillip Bay, near Melbourne, in the days of his youth, used to tell me about the terrible incident that took place off Brighton Pier in 1930, when a swimmer had been seized by a shark.

I recently did an online newspaper search, and sure enough found many accounts of that terrible day. Here is what happened:

In the early days of Melbourne settlement fishermen reported numerous encounters with large sharks in Port Phillip Bay but up until 1930 there had been only two reported fatalities.

On February 6^th 1876 a young man named Peter Rooney was attacked off St. Kilda beach, losing his leg, and dying from loss of blood soon after.

In 1881, one of two brothers sailing in a small yacht off Frankston, was carried away by a “giant” shark and his “arm, shoulder, waistcoat and watch” were later found inside the monster when it was caught some days after.

Contemporary 19th century drawing showing fishermen battling a large shark off the Brighton Pier

Pictures Collection

State Library of Victoria (Click to enlarge)

So two fatalities in more than fifty years of human activity in the Bay was hardly a bad record but on the afternoon of Saturday 15^th February 1930 this was all about to be turned on its head when a terrifying shark attack claimed a third victim.

Norman William Clark was with a small party of friends, diving and swimming around the Middle Brighton Pier on a fine and sunny late summer afternoon.

Swimming around piers, especially those from which fishermen operate is never a good idea. There is blood in the water from hooked fish and also fishermen will often gut their catch and throw the entrails back into the water. These activities can attract the attention of large and unwelcome visitors.

The Argus described the events that followed in the Monday morning edition of 17^th February 1930:

SEIZED BY SHARK

YOUTH'S TERRIBLE DEATH.

OFF MIDDLE BRIGHTON PIER.

MANY WITNESS TRAGEDY.

HORRIFIED WOMEN FAINT.

Attacked by a shark off the end of the Middle Brighton pier on Saturday afternoon, Norman William Clark, aged 19 years, of Point Nepean road, North Brighton, was mutilated and dragged to his death before assistance could be obtained.

Between 80 and 100 persons saw Clark disappear. So sudden was the attack that few people realised what had happened until they saw the shark grip Clark in its huge jaws. It came at him again and again, and eventually it disappeared with the body 50ft. from the pier. Witnesses described the shark as being at least 16ft. long.

The shark was seen a few seconds before it attacked Clark, but there was not enough time to give him warning. Some time before the tragedy Clark had been diving from other parts of the pier. He then went to the lower platform at the end of the pier, and after sitting there with his brother and the girl he dived in. He went out about 50ft. and returned to the platform.

A few minutes later he dived in again, and swam out the same distance, returning to within 12ft. of the edge of the platform. He was treading water when the shark first attacked him. A few seconds later, a man on the pier, according to statements by witness, saw the shark glide through the water as if it had just come from beneath the pier. He called out, "A shark," but Clark apparently did not hear the warning, or perhaps thought that someone was joking.

The next second he cried out, "Oh," and, throwing up one hand, he disappeared under the water. Even then few people realised that a shark had seized him. As he came up, however, the shark could be seen holding on to his leg. Clark appeared to be sitting across its nose, and he was punching it.

Horrified by the sight, many women on the pier fainted, and they had to be given stimulants. The girl who had been with Clark also fainted, and several men carried her along the pier. It was some time before she recovered. In the meantime, other women and men tried to frighten the shark away with noise, and it suddenly disappeared, dragging Clark down through the water. It carried him round to the south side of the pier.

Photograph of the Brighton Pier, c 1930

Pictures Collection

State Library of Victoria (Click to enlarge)

When Clark came up again, he was still trying to beat off the shark, but his strength was fast ebbing. The water for yards around was stained red.

The shark, with its fin and tail out of the water, made another rush at Clark, and almost lifted him out of the water as it seized him round the chest in its jaws.

That was the last that was seen of Clark. He went down suddenly, several witnesses said, as if the shark had carried him away.

Aftermath

Clark, whose father died several years ago, lived with his mother. He was a winch driver by occupation. Frequently he visited the Middle Brighton beach. Well-built and tanned by the sun, he was a splendid swimmer and diver, and it had been mentioned that he was fond of swimming in the deep water at the end of the pier.

The victim, Norman William Clark of North Brighton

(Click to enlarge)

Mr. David Clark, an elder brother of the victim, said yesterday that his brother was a Sea Scout, and he took an active interest in all kinds of sport. "Norman was a keen cricketer, and on Saturday I wanted him to play in a team of which I am a member," he added. "We were a man short in my team, and I wanted him to fill in the vacancy. He said that he had made arrangements to go swimming."

Although not mentioned in the newspaper account, from the description of the shark and its method of attack it seems likely that the monster was a white pointer.

For details of another infamous shark attack in Australia see

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/04/shark-attack.html

Sydney's Razor Gang Wars 1925 to 1935

2011-11-20T15:49:00.032+11:00

The recent success of the Underbelly television series has focussed attention on a rather strange period in the history of Sydney, when the kingpins of crime were two women, who brutally ruled the underworld of the city, and became fabulously wealthy in the process. This is a short history of what happened during the period from around 1925 to 1935 - a particularly violent decade.

Soon after the end of the First World War, with thousands of ex servicemen returning home after years away, a period of lawlessness descended on Sydney, the like of which has not been seen before or since.

Several factors shaped the occurrences of this period. Firstly, after the end of the war, many ex servicemen, after experiencing first hand the horrors of the frontline, had become irreligious and hedonistic with little or no thought or concern of an afterlife or judgement day. Simply put, tomorrow did not exist.

Erich Remarque well described the feelings of the World War One trench soldier in his classic "All Quiet on The Western Front" : We are forlorn like children, and experienced like old men, we are crude and sorrowful and superficial - I believe we are lost.

After drunken troop riots in Sydney in 1916, the temperance movement had initiated a referendum that resulted in 6 o’clock hotel closing taking the place of the old 11 pm mark. However the demand for alcohol after 6 was as strong as ever and a booming sly grog trade followed.

The desire for quick thrills resulted in a burgeoning prostitution industry and big money was there to be earned on Sydney’s streets. Cocaine, a previously legal drug sold over the counter in chemist shops during the first two decades of the century, was declared illegal, but because the demand was well established, the underworld was only too happy to take over the purchase and distribution of the drug, called “snow” during this time. Users were called “snow droppers”.

The Pistol Licensing Act came into force in 1927, and this produced an automatic six-month gaol sentence for anyone carrying an unlicensed firearm. As a result, the weapon of choice for many criminals became the cut throat razor, and this was used to threaten, intimidate and disfigure opponents.

In addition, the Great Depression had hit hard in Sydney, and high unemployment drove many men and women to crime, just to survive.

All these circumstances were similar to the situation in America with the Prohibition wars well under way during the “Roaring Twenties”, but instead of Al Capone and Lucky Luciano, Australia had Kate Leigh and Tilly Devine, two of the roughest and toughest ladies in the history of the country.

Kate Leigh made her fortune sly grogging, buying large amounts of alcohol legally during trading hours, and then selling it after 6 pm at huge mark up prices. She became extremely wealthy and defended her interests by hiring a gang of razor wielding thugs that suppressed any opposition. Nevertheless there were several takeover attempts and in 1930 she shot dead a gunman, Snowy Prendergast, who tried to break into her terrace at 104 Riley Street.

Kate did considerable prison time because of all her activities but was also known for her generosity, in particular for the lavish Christmas parties she turned on for the impoverished children of Surry Hills all through the depression years. These were held at her main address at 2 Lansdowne Street, Surry Hills.

Kate Leigh's Prison File in 1915.

Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

Matilda Devine, (nee Twiss) or Tilly as she became known, was an Englishwoman who had married an Australian soldier, “Big Jim” Devine, and followed him back to Australia at the end of the war. Tilly quickly and accurately assessed the social climate of Sydney and set up an organised group of brothels in Palmer Street Darlinghurst, taking up residence herself at number 191.

She cunningly recruited girls from the nearby Crown Street Women’s Hospital, many of whom were down from the country, having babies “out of wedlock” and without any other means of support.

Tilly brought a hitherto unseen high state of organisation to prostitution, offering her girls board, lodging and ”snow”, as well as a range of services to clients at varying pay scales. These ranged from quick and cheap back alley encounters for barrow boys to well appointed rooms for the service of gentlemen callers at greatly increased rates. Tilly received a cut in all these transactions and, like Kate Leigh, became a very wealthy woman as a result.

Tilly Devine's Prison File in 1925.

Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

She also defended her interests through hiring gangs of toughs, including her husband Big Jim, a violent, evil tempered gambler who beat her badly and often. Tilly also racked up numerous convictions over the years, but was able to escape the “living off immoral earnings” charge because, strangely enough, this law applied only to men and not women.

Kate and Tilly detested each other and their gangs had frequent violent encounters, producing a series of tit for tat killings and mutilations that dominated the headlines all through the period.

These were the so called “razor wars” of Sydney, that raged well into the 1930’s and were mainly concentrated in the Darlinghurst, Surry Hills and East Sydney area. But as with Al Capone, the taxman was able to do what the law enforcement agencies could not, by eventually putting both Kate and Tilly out of business through the levying of huge back taxes and fines because of undeclared income.

Kate was declared bankrupt and died in one of her old sly grog shops at 212 Devonshire St. Surry Hills in 1964. Tilly’s wealth was also much reduced and she finally died at the Concord Repatriation Hospital in 1970.

Some of the main characters of the period were:

Norman Bruhn: A particularly violent Melbourne criminal who had come to Sydney in 1927 and headed up a razor gang to extort money from other criminals, usually cocaine dealers or robbers. Bruhn was shot dead in Charlotte Lane, Darlinghurst late in 1927.

Frank Green's Prison File in 1933.

Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

Frank Green: An undersized but homicidal alcoholic and cocaine addict who was for a time the main “muscle” in Tilly Devine’s Gang. Green murdered several people, including the rival gunman Barney Dalton, in the infamous shooting outside the Strand Hotel in 1929.

The police file gives a hint of his violent lifestyle - "Bullet wounds on right side of back and on right side of abdomen. Large scar on right cheek. "ILD" above female bust outside right upper arm". (The scar on his right cheek was from a razor slash).

For a period Sydney’s number 1 tough guy, Green met a violent end when his then girlfriend, Beatrice Haggett, plunged a large carving knife into his chest at their flat in Cooper Street, Paddington, in 1956.
At her trial it took the jury only fifteen minutes to find her not guilty, on the grounds of self defence.

Guido Calletti's Prison File 1935
Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

Guido Calletti: An illiterate thug, thief and mugger who specialised in beating up strangers for their wallet. He was also the leader of the notorious Darlinghurst Push, one of the most violent gangs of the era. An avowed enemy of Frank Green because both were vying for the hand of Nellie Cameron (see below). When Green was in gaol Calletti was the recognised king of the Sydney underworld. He was shot dead by a member of the Brougham Street Gang at a party in Brougham Street in 1939.

Nellie Cameron's Prison File in 1930.

Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

Nellie Cameron: A total enigma, who was raised in an upper middle class North Shore family and went to an exclusive girls school. Attractive and curvaceous, when she was 16 she left home and headed straight for the bordellos of Darlinghurst where she became one of the highest priced prostitutes of the era. Despite her refined upbringing she chose to co-habit with some of the worst low life in Sydney, including Frank Green and Guido Calletti who she alternately lived with, depending who was in gaol at the time.

As her beauty faded with the years she went to live in a flat in Surry Hills where she ended her life with her head in the gas oven in 1952. Numerous bullet wounds were found on her body at the post mortem.

Newspaperman Eric Baume reported in disapproving tones of the scenes at her funeral. "Avid sensation hunters got strange thrills from following trash such as Nellie Cameron as though she had been one of the nurses who died under Japanese gunfire that awful day not so many years ago, or an Australian officer kneeling erect to be beheaded".

Jim Devine's Prison File in 1939.

Courtesy of State Records NSW

(Click on image to enlarge)

Big Jim Devine: Tilly Devine’s husband and a violent, foul tempered thug with a gambling problem. Jim killed at least two people and regularly beat up Tilly if she would not provide him enough money for the racetrack. They divorced in 1942 and Jim journeyed to Melbourne where he died in 1964.

Phil Jeffs: Perhaps the smartest crim of the era, he was one of the few to die of natural causes. His forte was illegal gambling and he operated the Fifty Fifty Club in William Street in the 1930’s. Here it was possible to gamble and drink, and as a sideline, girls were also available in private rooms, provided with the compliments of Tilly Devine. He later acquired the 400 Club, and ended his criminal career as a wealthy man. During his time as an entrepreneur he did gaol time for larceny, was accused of raping a married woman, was shot and seriously wounded and charged with selling liquor without a licence. He died in his mansion at Ettalong in 1945.

Lillian Armfield: A pioneering police officer, one of the first female detectives on the Force. Although the then Police Commissioner Bill Mackay was initially dubious about having women as detectives, Armfield’s appointment soon paid big dividends, with many of the street prostitutes providing her with valuable information they withheld from the male detectives. She became an expert gatherer of street intelligence.
Her career was long and distinguished and she finally retired from the Force in 1949, having being awarded the Imperial Service Medal and the Kings Police and Fire Service Medal.

A book about her incredible career was assembled by author Vince Kelly: Rugged Angel: The Amazing Career of Policewoman Lillian Armfield: Angus and Robertson Publishers, Sydney: 1961.

Some of the key addresses and locations of the Razor War era:

212 Devonshire Street, Surry Hills – Kate Leigh’s main sly grog shop and later home during the 1950’s.

21A Francis Street, Darlinghurst - Norman Bruhn’s address in 1927

The section of Elizabeth Street around Central Station and the then Toohey’s Brewery in Surry Hills was known as “the Barbary Coast”. The “Blue Lion “ and “Aurora” hotels were part of this.

Ernie Goods Wine bar – 236 Elizabeth Street, Surry Hills; “Sailor the Slasher” Saidler shot dead there by Ernie Goods in 1930.

Corner of Goulburn and Riley streets, Surry Hills, March 1928, Lawrence Tracey shot and killed.

Charlotte Lane, Darlinghurst – a vice centre of Sydney in the 1920’s – site of the shotting of Norman Bruhn in 1927.

Image above: The corner of Charlotte Lane and Hargrave Street in 1927. Image courtesy of the City of Sydney Archives. (Click on image to enlarge)

Kellett Street, Kings Cross, site of vicious brawl between the gangs of Tilly Devine and Kate Leigh on 8^th August 1929.

Corner of Malabar and Torrington Roads, Maroubra – house owned by Tilly and Jim Devine. Site of two murders in the 1920’s.

The Strand Hotel in William Street, East Sydney – where Frank Green shot to death Barney Dalton and wounded Wally Tomlinson in 1929.

Image: The Strand Hotel in 1915. Image courtesy of the City of Sydney Archives. (Click to enlarge)

104 Riley Street Surry Hills– Kate Leigh’s home for many years.

191 Palmer Street Darlinghurst – Tilly Devine’s home in Darlinghurst

“Tradesman’s Arms” Hotel – top of Palmer Street Darlinghurst – now “The East Village Hotel” - criminal haunt of 1920’s and 30’s. Guido Calletti, Nellie Cameron, Frank Green, Tilly Devine were regulars there.

Chard House, 171 William St East Sydney – on the 4^th floor was the infamous “Fifty-Fifty Club” owned by Phil Jeffs.

Image: Looking southeast from the corner of Riley street and William Street 1916. Image courtesy of the City of Sydney Archives. (Click to enlarge)

17 Denham Street, Surry Hills, home of Nellie Cameron in the 1950’s

25, 27 and 31 Kippax St. Surry Hills – houses owned by Kate Leigh and used for drugging and robbing passing victims.

2 Lansdowne St Surry Hills: Kate Leigh’s home for many years

21 Harmer Street Woolloomooloo: Frank Green’s house during the late 1920’s.

Rock Fishing

2011-11-13T20:09:00.026+11:00

Rock fishing is a pleasurable pastime in the right conditions, with the added bonus of bringing home a few tasty fish for the dinner table. But it can also be quite dangerous, with ocean swells sometimes ramping up unexpectedly to trap the unwary fishermen.

Above: Large waves can quickly break across rock ledges used by rock fishermen. Image from Wikipedia Commons.

Numerous tragedies have occurred along the Australian shoreline over the years, usually involving fishermen being washed off the rocks where they can be injured or drowned in the pounding waves. One such event occurred on Sunday 30^th May 1937 near Victor Harbour in South Australia. It was reported in The Mail, soon after:

Stories Of Big Waves

FISHING DANGER VICTOR HARBOR, Saturday.

Many stories of hairbreadth escapes from big, unexpected waves are being told among Victor Harbor anglers following the tragedy last Sunday, when H. M. Mildred, of Adelaide, was washed by a huge wave from a rocky ledge and drowned at the base of a 200-ft. headland near Waitpinga.

General opinion is that novices should not fish on the rocks and cliff faces of the South Coast without some one who knows the dangers.

Mr. Paul Cudmore tells how on a fine, hot day he and several companions lost all the fish they had caught, and some of their tackle. It was on the other side of Waitpinga beach, where three strangely shaped rocks project from the water.

The men had to wade through water up to their armpits to reach the farthest rock, where they caught three dozen 2-lb. sweep. Suddenly the water, which was comparatively smooth, rose up without warning, and rods, lines, bags, and fish were swept into the water. It was not so much a wave as a sudden movement of the sea.

As the men were clinging to the rock they saw two big sharks snapping up their fish. Within two minutes the water had subsided, and they recovered some of their tackle. But in view of the accident, and the arrival of the sharks, they decided to call it a day.

Big surf breaking across ledges favoured by rock fishermen can easily wash people into the water. Image from Wikipedia Commons.

Even today there are regular tragedies involving rock fishermen being swept from the shoreline and so safety remains of paramount importance. Important tips from the experts include:

* Know the tides and weather expected on the day

* Never fish alone

* Wear a personal flotation device, light clothing and shoes with cleats or non slip soles.

* Never turn your back to the sea.

* If you are swept in, swim away from the rocks.

* Be aware of any emergency rescue devices nearby, such as life rings and anchor points.

The golden rule of rock fishing: No fish is worth your life.

Tsunamis in Australia

2011-11-07T20:38:00.004+11:00

A tsunami is a wave, or train of waves that have been generated by a large scale displacement the ocean. This is usually caused by an undersea earthquake, but can also be the result of landslides, volcanic activity and more rarely, the impact of meteors.

As we have seen in recent times tsunamis can be devastating and immensely lethal. The Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 was one of the great disasters of modern history with over a quarter of a million people losing their lives as giant waves crashed along the coasts of Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka and India. More recently, on March 11 2011, a tsunami struck the coastline of eastern Japan, killing over 13,000 people and producing many billions of dollars worth of damage.

Devastated township in Sumatra following the Boxing day tsunami of 2004. (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

As a result of these tsunamis, a question commonly asked today is “Can Australia be struck by a tsunami”? The answer is certainly yes and indeed several such events have been recorded over the last 200 years.

However, the threat posed by tsunamis to the Australian coast varies markedly according to location. The risk is low along the southern coastline of the mainland, including South Australia, but moderate along the northwest coast of Western Australia because of its exposure to the geologically active area around Indonesia.

In August 1977 a large earthquake near Indonesia produced a tsunami at Cape Leveque, on the Western Australian coast to the north of Broome, that generated rises in sea level of 6m above the norm.

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was detected right along the Australian coastline as was another tsunami in May 1960, when a massive earthquake occurred in Chile. This latter event also produced a surge of water along the NSW coast, and boats were torn from their moorings in Sydney Harbour, Newcastle and Evans Head.

Going back further, another massive Chilean earthquake on 14^th August 1868 was also detected in South Australia but produced a far greater effect in Newcastle Harbour on the NSW coast, as the tsunami finally reached the area. A contemporary newspaper report described the scene:

"An extraordinary tidal disturbance has been experienced here this morning since half past 6 o'clock, - the vessels at the coal shoots broke from their moorings, one nearly losing her masts; the ship “Lucibelle”, 1000 tons, was swung round four times, although a strong ebb tide was running; and the vessels in harbour swung round in all directions".

Newcastle Harbour – hit by the tsunami of 1868 (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

In order to alert the Australian public about any tsunami activity approaching the Australian shoreline, the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre was established in 2007, operated by the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.

The Ultimate High Jump

2011-10-13T20:51:00.021+11:00

In any top-notch athletics meeting, one of the blue riband events has always been the high jump and the world record for this event has been of great and constant interest to the general public.

In 1912 the record was 2.00 m and this progressed steadily over the following decades, finishing up with 2.45 m in 1993, a progress of nearly half a metre in 100 years. The fact that the 1993 record still stands may well be an indication that we are approaching the height limit that a human being can jump and it's an interesting problem to try and estimate this limit.

And a limit seems to be intuitively likely – we cannot jump 5 m so therefore a limit exists somewhere between the current world record of 2.45 m and 5 m that places a ceiling on how high a human can jump.

Since 1920 several areas of progress have emerged in this event. The type of jump itself has evolved into more efficient styles that have enabled greater heights to be reached.

The old scissor jump was replaced by the so-called "western roll" in around 1912 and this was followed by the "straddle" jump over the following two decades. In his jump the athlete rotated over the bar whilst in a horizontal position and the US athlete Charles Dumas became the first human to jump 7 feet (2.13 m) in 1956 using this technique.

Above: A jumper clears the bar using the straddle technique (Image from Wikipedia Commons (Click to enlarge)

The Soviet jumper Valery Brumel was the great straddle expert of history and he took the record up to 2.28 m in 1964. Some great footage of Brumel in action can be seen at

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r0hdHV95sU

Brumel was an extraordinary athlete in every way, and he regularly preformed a “party trick” that was truly amazing. He could leap upwards and touch the ring of a basketball hoop 10 feet off the floor with his foot! (I wonder how many could do this today?)

For an image showing this incredible feat see

http://crossfitcanmore.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/brumel.jpg

The next style breakthrough came through a young American, Dick Fosbury, who in the late 1960’s pioneered a technique in which the jumper cleared the bar backwards and looking upwards – a sort of half back somersault. This style was made possible by improvements in the landing pit that was softer and raised so that an athlete could land on his back without risking serious injury. This jump became known as the “Fosbury Flop” and enabled jumpers to reach significantly greater heights.

Above - The Fosbury Flop

(Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

It was used with great effect by jumpers over the following four decades, with the present record holder Javier Sotomayor using it to establish the present world record of 2.45 m in 1993.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=eM24YXSpidU

A complete list of the high jump world records can be found at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men's_high_jump_world_record_progression

but for the sake of our discussion here we will consider only the following four:

2.03 m in 1924 by Harold Osborn (USA)

2.28 m in 1963 by Valery Brumel (URS)

2.41 m in 1985 by Rudolf Povarnitsyn (URS)

2.45 m in 1993 by Javier Sotomayor (CUB)

We can try and simulate this record progression with mathematics and it turns out that by using a device called the geometric series, we can come up with a reasonable simulation. In doing so I remark that there is no physical reason whatsoever for adopting this method but what I set out to do was

(a) Use a mathematical process that reproduced the past

(b) Had an accuracy of greater than 95% in doing this

It works like this:

The world record in 1925 was 2.03 metres and we write this as

0.53+1+0.5 = 2.03

40 years later, in 1965, the record was 2.28 m, which is

0.53+1+0.5 + 0.25 = 2.28, or

0.53+1+(1/2)+(1/4) = 2.28

20 years later, in 1985, it was 2.41 m, which is close to

0.53+1+0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125 = 2.405, or

0.53+1+(1/2)+(1/4)+(1/8) = 2.405

10 years later, in 1995, it was 2.45 m, which is close to

0.53+1+0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125 + 0.0625 = 2.4675, or

0.53+1+(1/2)+(1/4)+(1/8)+(1/16) = 2.4675

Our prediction therefore produces an error of less than 2%.

From this we would predict that 5 years later, in 2000, the record would be

0.53+1+(1/2)+(1/4)+(1/8)+(1/16)+(1/32) = 2.49875,

but in fact it remained at 2.45m, as the record set in 1993 still stood.

This represents an error of 4.9%.

Mathematicians will recognise what is called a geometric series emerging here, which is

1+(1/2)+(1/4)+(1/8)+(1/16)+(1/32)+(1/64)+(1/128) + …..,

and the interesting fact about this series is that it converges to a limit, which is 2. When we add our 0.53 that we started with to set our figure at the 1925 record, this predicts that the theoretical height limit to which a human being can jump is 2.53 metres.

If we assume an error of 5% on top of this, it means that its likely the world high jump record will peak somewhere between 2.53 and 2.66 metres.

However humans can seldom be described by mathematics. Perhaps somewhere, sometime out there, a boy will be born with special genetic gifts. As he reaches manhood he will have the spring of a Brumel, the finesse of a Fosbury and the strength of a Sotomayor. He will defy the geometric series and astound the world. It is only a question of when.

Grand Final Weather

2011-09-29T15:22:00.011+10:00

The Australian Football League Grand Final:

Weather has played a big part in some of the great finals matches of the past.

In the amazing Preliminary final of 1921 between Carlton and Richmond the match was delayed after a massive hailstorm carpeted the MCG in ice. For the record, Richmond won that one.

The 1927 Grand Final was more of a regatta than a footy match with torrential rain falling throughout the game turning the field into a quagmire. Jock McHale’s Collingwood side beat Richmond in a very low scoring match.

Above: Umbrellas were all the go in the 1927 Grand Final, when Collingwood defeated Richmond by 12 points. (Click on image to enlarge)

One of the most famous weather affected matches was the great 1958 Grand Final when rain during the match slowed the pacy Melbourne Demons down and the gritty Collingwood side got up for one of the biggest upsets of all time. Some tough tactics by the Magpies Murray Weideman and Hooker Harrison also helped.

The 1960 Grand Final was also a mud-bath after two days of torrential rain leading up to the match. It was Melbourne’s turn to beat Collingwood in this one.

The Rugby League Grand Final:

The weather has not only had an influence on several grand finals in the past, but it has also provided the background for the design of the famous NRL Premiership trophy, the trophy for which each team strives during the Australian Rugby league season.

On Saturday, August 24, 1963 at the Sydney Cricket Ground, a record crowd of 69,860 witnessed St. George and Western Suburbs do battle in the Grand Final. The match was played in atrocious conditions after heavy overnight rain had turned the ground into a quagmire.

August 1963 had been a wet month, with 80 mm of rain falling up until the morning of the match and 12 mm of

rain falling the day before. As a result, the ground was a bog and soon after the start of play most players were coated in mud.

The game resulted in a victory for St. George and as the players left the field, two of the mud spattered warriors, Arthur Summons and Norm Provan, shooks hands. The Herald Sun photographer John O’Grady captured the moment for the next day’s edition and in the account of the match conditions were described as “far from ideal” – a massive understatement.

That photograph became immortalised as the model for the famous NRL Premiership trophy – the design of which was heavily influenced by the weather.

Above: The NRL Premiership trophy (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

The Wreck of the Admella

2011-08-02T20:40:00.005+10:00

During the nineteenth century, before the time of organised weather forecast and warning services, shipwreck was an all too frequent occurrence along the Australian coastline. The rugged shores of South Australia saw several such disasters during this time with the greatest tragedy occurring during August 1859 involving the steamship Admella.

Above - The Admella under way in rough seas. (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

This vessel was a passenger steamship of around 400 tonnes named after the route she plied, from Adelaide to Melbourne and Launceston. She was fast for the day, offered the passengers a high standard of comfort and overall was regarded as one of the finest local passenger vessels of the time.

The Admella departed Port Adelaide on 5th August 1859 and set course for Melbourne carrying 84 passengers and 29 crew, as well as general trade merchandise and four racehorses bound for the Melbourne Cup due to be run in November of that year.

There were no weather charts issued at that time in Australia and so ship’s captains had no real idea what weather lay ahead, apart from talking with other captains who had recently sailed around the area.

Soon after departure the ship encountered rough weather, and being August it is likely that this was some type of westerly gale, involving cold fronts and a low-pressure system nearby. Navigation in these conditions was difficult, especially at night when the shoreline could not be seen.

At around 4 am on Saturday 6th August the Admella ran aground on Carpenters Reef, only about 1 km offshore from a length of coast to the southwest of Mount Gambier. The iron hull broke into thee large sections, battered by the relentless waves that continually broke across the reef as desperate survivors clung to the wreckage.

The Admella lies wrecked on Carpenters Reef - (Image from Wikipedia Commons )

After the news of the disaster eventually reached the authorities, several desperate attempts were made by lifeboats to reach the wreck but were thwarted by the smashing waves, and although the survivors could see the shore only a short distance away they were unable to move from the wreck.

Hours turned into days with no abatement in the weather, and many passengers and crew fell to their death in the sea, suffering from exhaustion and exposure.

Finally, more than a week after the grounding, a lifeboat from Portland managed to pull alongside and the remaining survivors were taken onboard and rescued. In all, 89 lives were lost in the disaster.

One of the direct results of the tragedy was the construction of a lighthouse at nearby Cape Banks in 1881 to warn ships of the proximity of the deadly rocks of Carpenters Reef.

Gale force westerly winds were the likely cause of the disaster. (Image based on that supplied in Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

It appears that the Admella was exposed to a week of strong winds and very rough seas and this could well have been produced by a strong low pressure cell to the south of the area in which a series of cold fronts were embedded. This circumstance is not infrequent in the area during August.

The Pentagon - Back in 1944

2011-07-26T11:05:00.015+10:00

The Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Department of Defence and is the largest office building in the world in terms of floor area (6.5 million square feet or 604 thousand square metres).

It was begun in 1941 and completed in 1943 after a remarkably fast construction period during which the actual building process was at times ahead of the plans that were being prepared simultaneously.

The images shown here were taken by the US Army Signal Corps in 1944, soon after completion of the building and provide a fascinating glimpse into the working conditions inside early 70 years ago. The captions are as originally written and published in a booklet called simply "The Pentagon" as issued in 1944.

Image above: Ramps lead from the Concourse to various floors. Guards posted at the doorways to the ramps check military passes and civilian's badges. Brief cases, packages, and papers are thoroughly inspected. (Click on image to enlarge)

At the time many of the processes and procedures were on the very cutting edge of technology and provide an interesting contrast with today’s computer driven working environment.

Pentagon workers' efficiency is enhanced by excellent lighting, insulation against sound, and a well planned layout. There are 21,00 desks. (Click on image to enlarge)

The Adjutant General's reproduction branch is a great photographing, printing and duplicating establishment. It reproduces such things as battle casualty reports, Army Postal Service Directories, vital 'short run publications' and Bureau of Public relations press releases. (Click on image to enlarge)

A messenger pedalling a tricycle loaded with documents and official mail. (Click on image to enlarge)

The South Parking Area is the larger of the two main parking areas. Into it drive most of the 6,000 cars which arrive at The Pentagon each morning. In the background is the Navy Department's Arlington Annex. (Click to enlarge)

The Secretary of War's Office is furnished with a table used by Lincoln (foreground) and a portrait of Timothy Pickering, the second Secretary of War. One phone connects directly with the White House. (Click to enlarge)

A Brief History of Weather Forecasting - from Gods to Gigabytes

2011-07-15T16:28:00.017+10:00

An Incredible Journey
Humanity’s effort to understand, and eventually predict the behaviour of our weather, has been one of the more remarkable odysseys of history.

In many early civilisations, the state of the weather was believed to be a direct reflection of the mood of the Gods who could punish the misdeeds of society with storms, drought and flood. As a result elaborate systems of prayer and ritual were constructed in order to appease these Gods, sometimes involving human sacrifice.

Ra – the Sun God of ancient Egypt (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

The first “weathermen” were usually high priests, witchdoctors or medicine men, whose duties involved not only “foretelling” the weather but also ensuring that the Gods were placated so as to guarantee favourable conditions into the future.

The belief in the divine nature of weather continued across the millennia with hailstorms in mediaeval Europe, for example, sometimes being followed by the burning of witches.

Great Minds of Antiquity
However even in ancient societies inquisitive minds were at work to try and identify “natural” causes that drove the weather. Such great intellects as Hippocrates, Aristotle and Pliny the Elder all produced treatises on the subject, offering many ideas that were later shown to be incorrect but nevertheless demonstrating a desire to look beyond the supernatural.

Aristotle's treatise on th subject - Meteorologica - meaning a study of phenomena high in the air, was to give the modern science of meteorology its name.

Aristotle – believed that the weather was the result of natural forces rather than the moods of the Gods. (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

Weather Folklore
Another source of progress in the “natural” understanding of weather came, not surprisingly, from the two main groups most intimately affected by it – farmers and mariners. Both noted correlations between the weather and cloud patterns, the nature of the wind and even changes in plant and wildlife behaviour.

The mariners, in particular, forged ahead steadily, and by the mid 1700’s sailing boat captains had gathered a good working knowledge of the main wind regimes of our planet, giving them nautical names that persist today, such as the Roaring Forties, the Trade Winds and Doldrums.

A formation of alto-cumulus - a "mackerel" sky.

"Mare's tails and mackerel scales make tall ships take in their sails." (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

Whilst much of the “weather folklore” did not provide a lasting contribution to meteorology, it nevertheless formed a bridge between the Divine nature of weather and the Scientific Era that was to follow.

The Scientific Era
During the latter half of the Middle Ages, several exciting developments were made that would help catapult meteorology into the world of science, where it at once took root and flourished.

Instruments for measuring the state of the atmosphere were invented in the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries and were followed in quick time over the next 100 years by important discoveries on the chemical composition and temperature structure of the atmosphere.

During this time the hygrometer was invented by Leonardo da Vinci (1452 – 1519), the thermometer by Galileo Galilei, (1564 – 1642), and the barometer by Evangelista Torricelli (1608 – 1647).

Knowledge exploded during the 19th century with the discovery that large belts of high and low atmospheric pressure constantly circulated the globe, and the invention of the electric telegraph allowed this information to be transmitted faster than the pressure systems themselves, could move.

Samuel Morse (1791 – 1872) American inventor of the electric telegraph and the Morse code (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

International cooperation in exchanging weather data was achieved in 1878 with the founding of the International Meteorological Organisation (IMO).

The 20th century saw progress accelerate at an astounding rate, with national meteorological services forming around the world and the beginnings of “weather forecasting by mathematics” off to a solid start, following pioneering work by the English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson.

The IMO evolved into the WMO - the World Meteorological Organisation in 1950, and soon attracted more than 170 member counties, all with the aim of generating and sharing weather information on a basis of global cooperation.

The first meteorological satellite was launched in 1960, and was accompanied by a steady increase in weather observing stations and radar installations right around the world.

The first photograph transmitted by TIROS 1 from space - 1960 (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

Into The Future
By the beginning of the 21st Century meteorology had evolved into a vast, complex interdisciplinary science, with weather forecasts being produced out to seven days ahead by massive supercomputers linked to a vast international array of automatic weather stations, meteorological satellites and floating oceanic buoys.

Meteorology has become a glowing example of international cooperation with a developing science made available to all for the common good, sometimes within hostile political environments. If meteorologists ruled the world life could be rather dull but it would be peaceful.

New weather God - an SGI Altix supercomputer located in France is housed in a structure strangely reminiscent of a church (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

The accuracy of weather forecasts has been steadily increasing, and with more computing power becoming available, together with an increasing density of meteorological observations, this increase is expected to continue well into the future.

The long march from Gods to gigabytes has been one of the epic journeys of humanity and provides a fascinating insight both into the weather and the almost infinite inventiveness of the human mind.

For m0re information on how computers are used to predict the weather see

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2009/07/weather-forecasting-by-numbers.html

Volcanic Ash Chile

2011-06-13T09:49:00.008+10:00

The volcanic eruption at the Cordon Caulle complex in Chile during June 2011 ejected volcanic ash some 15,000 metres up into the atmosphere, with the finer ash particles being caught up in the upper level westerly winds.

The massive eruption from Chile's Puyehue volcano produced a massive ash cloud. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Many millions of these tiny particles travelled across the southern Atlantic Ocean, to the south of Africa and then over the southern Indian Ocean and southern parts of Australia and New Zealand.

The ash cloud dispersed over 9000 km at high altitude across parts of the southern hemisphere being detected over New Zealand on Sunday 12th June. (Click to enlarge)

This produced significant disruption to international airline flights across the Southern Hemisphere.

The recent eruptions over Iceland produced similar chaos over the northern hemisphere during April of 2010 when many flights over northern Europe were cancelled.

Volcanic ash clouds tend to stay in the same hemisphere as the volcano of origin, but can stay aloft for several weeks, circumnavigating the Earth at the same time.

Volcanic ash is hazardous to high flying jet aircraft, because particles injected into the engine can produce component failures and flame-outs - or engine stalling. Instrument malfunction can also occur through a clogging process where ash accumulates in sensors such as pitot tubes, producing erroneous readings of air speed.

The first documented case of a modern jet plane encountering a volcanic ash cloud was in 1982, when British Airways Flight 9 flew into ash debris from the active volcano Mount Galunggung, over Indonesia.

Artists impression of Flight BA 9, descending with all four engines stalled and the fuselage glowing with static electricity after flying into a volcanic ash cloud in 1982. (Image form Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

All four engines stopped, and a complete disaster was only narrowly averted when a successful restart was made at lower altitude and the aircraft was able to land in Jakarta.

Do You Wanna Dance?

2011-05-01T20:37:00.010+10:00

One of the iconic songs of the 1960’s “Do You Wanna Dance?” was in fact written in 1958 by the African American songwriter Bobby Freeman and originally titled “Do You Want to Dance?”.

This song proved to be one of the more adaptable songs of the era and was released by several artists in a variety of styles, all of which produced great versions and big hits. The original Bobby Freeman recording was used in the 1973 version of “American Graffiti”.

Some of those involved were Cliff Richard (1962), Del Shannon (1964), Bette Midler (1972), John Lennon (1975) and The Ramones (1977), but several other artists also produced their own versions.

However, perhaps the two best-known takes of the song were performed by the Beach Boys in 1965 and The Mamas and Papas in 1966, both entirely different but in their own ways intriguing and fascinating.

The Beach Boys version was a classic example of their unique style – close harmonies with a strong flavour of the 1960’s “California youth culture of surfing, cars and romance”.

Their version was released as a single with the B-side featuring “Please Let Me Wonder”, and also in the album “Today!” and rose to number 12 on the Billboard Hot 100.

The cover of the Beach Boys single, released in 1965, containing their version of "Do You Wanna Dance". (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

The Mamas and Papas produced an awesome sound with Michelle Phillips and Cass Elliot cutting loose in majestic harmonies backed up by the powerful John Phillips /Denny Doherty arrangements. This version appeared in their debut album “If You Can Believe Your Eyes and Ears” and rated number 1 on the Billboard 200 of 1966.

The Mamas and Papas Album cover "If You Can Believe Your Eyes and Ears".
(Image from Wikipedia Commons)

Both the Beach Boys and Mamas and Papas versions of “Do You Wanna Dance” came out during the Vietnam War and were played countless times by troops in their spare time, in the mess and through radio broadcasts of the day. Military veterans of the era remember these songs with great affection.

Which was the best? Well you can be the judge by listening to both great interpretations of this classical 1960’s song.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KmNCA05wY&feature=fvst

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3yYMMSG5f0&feature=related

Shark Attack!

2011-04-24T21:40:00.013+10:00

There have been more than 250 recorded shark attacks along the NSW coast since European settlement in 1788, with nearly 30% of these proving fatal. Several of these have been along Sydney beaches and in Sydney Harbour itself, with the last fatality here occurring back in 1963 when the actress Marcia Hathaway was mauled to death in Middle Harbour.

Above: A bull shark - one of the proven man eaters around Sydney waters (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The first recorded fatal attack to occur off a Sydney beach happened on February 4^th 1922, just prior to a surf carnival at Coogee Beach. The Sydney newspaper of the day “The Referee” recorded the terrible events of that afternoon:

Coogee Beach panorama today

(Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

February 4 1922 – a terrible tragedy

TORN FROM SHARKS JAW

UNDYING HEROISM OF JACK CHALMERS AND FRANK BEAUREPAIRE.

COOGEE SURF TRAGEDY.

Last Saturday afternoon all Sydney was shocked to learn of the terrible tragedy enacted in the surf at Coogee before the horrified, gaze of at least 6000 persons, gathered to watch the swimming carnival there -which, out of respect to the victim, was postponed.

There was promise of excellent sport. A light, sparkling, sunny day, and long rolling breakers that would carry a man in at express speed 150 yards or more.

The rollers were too tempting, anyhow, for Milton Singleton Coughlan, 18-year-old son of the postmaster of Randwick. This fine, sturdy, bronzed youth, with the physique of a grown man, got down on the rocks near the club house before the carnival was due to start, and took a header into the sea, just as thousands have done before him. He got well out into what is known as the reef, about 30 or 40 yards from the rocks, caught a breaker, and came rushing shore wards. Young Coughlan swam out for another, and yet another. A friend sang out to the lad to look out for sharks in the channel, but Coughlan laughed back fearlessly.

Then the tragedy happened. One minute the swimmer was observed standing about waist deep on the edge of the channel which runs beyond the reef-and the next a huge something flashed in the sun, clear of the water, and the horrified crowd next saw for some minutes a shark and the swimmer threshing around in a welter of blood-stained water and scarlet flecked foam. The shark seized his victim by the right arm just as he was in the act of signalling to his club-mates for assistance. With one snap of its jaws the brute tore off Coughlan's arm, but the plucky boy, although momentarily dragged under, reappeared above water, and the awe-stricken spectators saw him laying about him with the left arm, and trying to beat off his savage assailant. Then the shark got the left arm in its jaws.

Meanwhile those on shore were not altogether idle. The first to act was Jack Chalmers, of Woollahra, a well known swimmer. Seeing Coughlan's plight, and without an instant's hesitation, he rushed down the rocks near the clubhouse. He had hastily got the line off a disused life-saving reel knotted round his waist, and would not wait for a cork lifebelt. Mr. T. Doran, a club-mate, helped to give out the life-line. As Chalmers scrambled over the slippery green rocks he fell heavily, and was for a moment stunned, and his leg was badly lacerated. Struggling to his feet, he plunged into the water to the rescue.

SWARM OF SHARKS.

His time out to Coughlan was pretty nearly a record say those who, with bated breath, watched the plucky fellow go to face what looked like certain death. As Chalmers neared Coughlan, the latter, almost spent with his struggle, turned a tortured, appealing look towards his rescuer, and with wonderful presence of mind, turned on his back-in the way life-savers are taught to do, so that Chalmers' rescue might be made easier.

Chalmers is near now, and he makes his supreme effort to grab Coughlan before the shark drags the exhausted, rapidly weakening lad under. The shark is not of extraordinary size, else it would have succeeded in drowning Coughlan before; but is evidently the advance guard of other sharks who, attracted by blood, are nosing their way towards the struggling pair.

And now Chalmers has his man. He literally has to tear him from the shark’s jaws. "Don't let go of me, Jack!", cries out Coughlan. It is his first cry for aid and is torn from him by terrible torture. Slowly the pair are drawn to the shore, and meanwhile that champion of champions, Frank Beaurepaire, and a Mr. Green, of Coogee, the latter fully clad, have dived in and helped in the rescue and by splashing, lustily in the water, frightens away the sharks prowling in the vicinity eager and hungry to dash in.

Beaurepaire was in the surf shed on the rocks when the cry of horror went up, and caused him to rush to the balcony of the clubhouse. He could not realise what was happening for a moment. Suddenly the swirl of the blood-flecked water brought home the realisation of the tragedy being enacted. Beaurepaire dropped down the rocks to the water's' edge. Not knowing the locality, he had to make through the crashing breakers over the rocks. Three times he was knocked back, but at last, following fast on a receding wave, the champion swimmer was able to dive into deep water. He sped out to where Chalmers was holding Coghlan and making very little progress towards the shore. Gripping Chalmers by the costume with one hand, Beaurepaire, using his free arm and his renowned trudgeon kick, assisted the rescuer and the victim, to the rocks, where they were lifted out of the water.

As the swimmers get nearer land, helping hands lean down to raise the poor mangled body of Coughlan, and bear him away to the waiting doctor and ambulance men. One arm is snapped off clean at the elbow; the other mangled and torn, hangs by a shred.

Coughlan, though faint and weak, is conscious, and in a whimsical .voice, catching sight of a pal, he says, with the very wraith of a smile, "It's a fair cow, isn't it?" Later, some-one puts a towel over his face. "Take it off, please," says he. They were tying up arteries and putting on tourniquets, at the time' and wanted to spare the poor sufferer all they could.

To Mr. Henderson, the District Superintendent of- the Red Cross, who sat by him in the speeding ambulance, Coughlan remarked, with a still bright light in his eye: "I don't think I've much of a show, have I? I expect my number's up; but, by Jove, that shark stopped one or two good ones!"

Those, were about, his last words. Shortly afterwards he lapsed into unconsciousness, and about a quarter of an hour after admission into hospital, this plucky young Australian passed away.

His burial took place on Monday last, and surfers from far and near with club banners, marched behind the hearse to pay their respect to a gallant surfer and clean sport.

The aftermath

Milton Singleton Coughlan

Milton Singleton Coughlan was only 18 years of age when he met his untimely death. He was born in Bungendore, NSW, the son of the local Postmaster, Thomas Coughlan. His family then moved to Randwick when his father became Postmaster of the Randwick Post Office.

Milton was employed by the Newtown Office of the Railway department, and had previously been a pupil at both Sydney Grammar and Trinity Grammar where he had shown considerable athletic prowess.

Milton Singleton Coughlan, circa 1921

He was also the great great grandson of Benjamin Singleton after which the township of Singleton was named.

After a massively attended funeral service at St. Judes Church in Randwick he was buried in Randwick Cemetery.

His father Thomas also died violently in 1939, at the age of 74, when he tried to stop two robbers from raiding the Randwick Military Hospital Post Office and was beaten over the head with a pistol.

Jack Chalmers

The hero of the tragedy, Jack Chalmers, was a member of the North Bondi Surf Club and also a returned soldier of World War One, where he served on the Western Front.

For his courage in attempting to rescue Milton Coughlan he was granted £3000, made a life member of both Coogee and North Bondi Surf Life Savings Clubs and awarded the Albert Medal, the highest decoration for bravery given to a civilian. This was later changed to the George Cross. He died in 1982, and his ashes were scattered on North Bondi Beach.

Hero of the hour: Jack Chalmers

For further information, plus photographs of Jack Chalmers, go to the following two links:

http://images.slsa.sa.gov.au/searcy/35/PRG280_1_35_305.htm

http://cas.awm.gov.au/item/P04794.005/

Frank Beaurepaire

Frank Beaurepaire was the Australian middle and long distance swimming champion from 1906 to 1925, representing Australia at the Olympic Games of London (1908), Antwerp (1920) and Paris (1924). He won a total of six Olympic medals but none of these were gold.

For his part in the attempted rescue of Coughlan he was awarded £500, and made a life member of both Coogee and North Bondi Surf Life Savings Clubs. He used his prize to start a business – Beaurepaire’s Tyres, which made him a millionaire and he was also elected Lord Mayor of Melbourne between 1940 and 1942.

He was knighted, and as Sir Frank Beaurepaire, died a very wealthy and admired public figure in 1956.

Beaurepaires Tyres remains a vibrant and successful company today and the website can be seen at

http://www.beaurepaires.com.au

For details of another infamous shark attack, this time in Port Phillip Bay near Melbourne see

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/11/brighton-shark-attack-of-1930.html

Christmas Day 1914 - Miracle in the Trenches

2011-04-04T08:53:00.020+10:00

Following the outbreak of war in June 1914, the British and German armies dug in across France and Belgium and faced each other in a long series of trenches that extended for hundreds of kilometres across the countryside.

Above - Soldiers moving up to the front line through a communication trench. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

In a totally new type of defensive warfare, the soldiers lived in hellish conditions in these trenches, exposed to the weather, constant shelling, and small arms fire. Occasional attacks ordered by the various high commands required the men to climb up out of the trenches and advance over the ground between, usually strewn with barbed wire entanglements, where hundreds would be slaughtered in “no-man’s land” by the waiting machine guns of the enemy.

In day-to-day trench life it was courting death to raise one’s head above the trench parapet – waiting expert snipers dotted about the countryside in concealed positions could snuff out a mans life with a head shot from 300 metres away.

It was in these diabolical circumstances that Christmas Day 1914 approached and both armies were reconciled into having to experience thoroughly miserable conditions for their Yuletide. But it was not to be.

On Christmas Eve, carols were heard emanating from the German trenches that began to glow as candles were placed along the parapets. The Germans sang “Stille Nacht” (Silent Night), and the British responded with the English version, together with bursts of mouth organ rag time music.

Christmas Day 1914 dawned and a British officer and later war cartoonist, , Captain Bruce Bairnsfather, recalled the scene as it emerged across a Flanders field looking towards the German trenches:

“On Christmas morning I awoke very early and emerged from my dug – out into the trench. It was a perfect day. A beautiful, cloudless blue sky. The ground hard and white, fading off towards the wood in a thin, low-lying mist. It was such a day as is invariably depicted by artists on Christmas cards – the ideal Christmas day of fiction.”

Bruce Bairnsfather's immortal sketch of Christmas Day, 1914, in the trenches of World War One. (Click to enlarge)

As the morning wore on the British became increasingly aware of German heads appearing above their trench lines, and soon followed suit, with a sort of tacit agreement developing that the snipers would not shoot in Christmas Day. Eventually a full German figure emerged above the trenches – a suicidal manoeuvre on any other day.

The British followed and soon scores of soldiers, all unarmed, advanced towards each other across no man’s land. Amid surreal scenes, Germans and British shook hands, swapped souvenirs, chatted and exchanged pleasantries.

Another Bairnsfather sketch showing the British and German soldiers mixing together on Christmas Day 1914. (Click to enlarge)

It was later revealed that similar scenes took place across some 500 km of frontal lines on that magic day, with friendships made, soccer games played and photographs taken – all normal young men taking 24 hours out from the insanity of war.

British and German troops mixing in the sunshine at Bridoux Rouge on Christmas Day 1914. (Image from Wikipedia Commons; click to enlarge)

Both the British and German High Commands were outraged by these activities for this was “fraternisation with the enemy” – a serious military offence that could mean the firing squad for any individual identified. Sensibly this was overlooked, although strict orders were issued forbidding any future repeats.

It was back to business as usual soon after, with the war extending nearly another four years before ending on the 11th November 1918. Nine million soldiers lay dead in one of histories greatest tragedies.

The events of Christmas Day 1914 would constitute one of the more remarkable events of World War One and remain as a testament to the desire for peace in the common soldier - as contrasted by the desire for war from those in high places that are usually far away in safe locations.

Descendants of British and German World War One soldiers in the uniforms of the day commemorate Christmas Day 1914 near some of the old trenches in a ceremony held in 2008. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

For more on the extraordinary Bruce Bairnsfather see

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/03/bruce-bairnsfather-cartoonist-of.html

Bruce Bairnsfather - Cartoonist of the Western Front

2011-03-29T19:53:00.010+11:00

The First World War began in June 1914, and in a patriotic fervour, British troops from all parts of the world flocked to the colours – English, Australians, Canadians, South Africans and Indians all joined up to assist the Mother Country in her struggle with Germany.

However towards the end of 1914 enthusiasm had begun to flag- ships full of maimed and wounded soldiers began to filter back from the Western Front, telling stories of horror that gave many of the potential new recruits second thoughts about enlisting.

The war had bogged down into trench warfare across much of France and Belgium, producing diabolical conditions unmatched in modern history. The British and German armies faced each other from a long series of trenches dug into the mud of farming land that stretched for miles across the countryside.

Hell on Earth - World War One trench warfare. Image from Wikipedia Commons (Click to enlarge)

The soldiers lived in these trenches, enduring terrible weather, artillery bombardments, gas attacks and occasional charges from the enemy where hundreds would be mown down by machine gun and rifle fire while trying to get through the barbed wire entanglements in the ground between the trenches – aptly named “no mans land”.

Men were blown to bits, with battlefield rats feeding off the resulting body parts, and others reduced to trembling, nervous wrecks from the unending artillery bombardments. Morale fell as everyone realised that there was no end in sight for this terrible situation and recruitment for the front fell alarmingly.

Then a remarkable man appeared on the scene - Bruce Bairnsfather – in fact Captain Bruce Bairnsfather, a machine gun officer of the Royal Warwickshire Regiment.

Bairnsfather had previously been in the army before the war but had left to become a commercial artist where he performed advertising work for a number of clients, including Lipton’s Tea and Player Cigarettes. He rejoined the army on the outbreak of war and was commissioned as an officer soon after.

This unusual blend of military training and artistic bent soon burst into flower on the Western Front when he began, in his spare time, producing satirical cartoons on trench life that he hung up on farmhouse walls where he was billeted during breaks from the trenches.

The Professional Touch - "Chuck us out that bag o' bombs mate - its under your 'ead" (Click to enlarge)

These cartoons captured a unique type of grim humour that was obtusely derived from the horrors of daily trench life and they soon became highly popular with all his fellow officers.

In 1915 one of these cartoons was submitted to a popular English magazine of the time, “The Bystander”, and the reaction produced resulted in the editors immediately requesting more of the same. A full special edition of Bairnsfather drawings called “Fragments from France” followed and produced the biggest ever monthly sales figures for “The Bystander”, with over 225,000 copies sold – a massive figure for the day.

One of Bairnsfathers' earliest Cartoons - "Where did that one go?" - Fragments from France Vol 1 (Click to enlarge)

However, the reception to the publication was not unanimously positive – a Member of the House of Commons described the cartoons as “vulgar caricatures of our heroes”. However the soldiers along the western front loved “Fragments” and one officer later remarked

“To us out here the “Fragments” are the very quintessence of life. We sit moping over a smoky charcoal fire in a dug-out. Suddenly someone more wide awake than others, remembers the “Fragments”. Out it comes and we laugh uproariously over each picture. For are these not the very things we are witnessing every day, incidents full of tragic humour?”

After being wounded at the second battle of Ypres, Bairnsfather was eventually repatriated to England where it was later decided that he would do far more good for the war in his role as a cartoonist than as a machine gun officer.

More editions of “Fragments” were demanded and generated, and Bairnsfather’s cartoons ended up producing a totally unique chronicle of trench life on the Western Front during the First World War.

Coiffure in the trenches
Fragments from France, Volume 1 (Click to enlarge)

The journalist Martin Walker later remarked that

"The cartoons were by a man who had fought in the trenches and who knew what that kind of wholly new warfare was like. Veterans of the Western Front have paid almost universal testimony to Bairnsfather as a historian of the conditions in which they fought and the sense of humour which the soldiers brought to bear against the life, or more precisely, against the death."

Bairnsfather’s contribution to the war effort was tremendous but ironically he received no official recognition from the Government – a situation that hurt him deeply. He died on 29th September 1959, a much loved figure amongst the veterans of the First World War.

He is also well remembered for his eye-witness account and drawings of the amazing Christmas Day truce of 1914 when British and Germans abandoned the war for the day, shook hands, played soccer and chatted together. To read about this see

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/04/christmas-day-1914-miracle-in-trenches.html

Over recent years Bairnsfather’s legacy has enjoyed a comeback, thanks largely to the miracle of the Internet. Two interesting websites can be seen here:

http://www.olebill.zoomshare.com/0.html

http://www.brucebairnsfather.org.uk/index.htm

Teresa Teng - The Angel Of China

2011-03-06T22:10:00.014+11:00

Teresa Teng was a Chinese singer whose songs had, and continue to have, an enormous musical influence across southeastern Asia, and over the last decade, a rising impact on western countries in the area, in particular Australia.

Teresa Teng - the Angel of China (Image Wikipedia Commons)

She possessed a wonderful voice, said to be the "voice of an angel", that covered a wide vocal range and sang in a distinctive melodic style that became highly sought after around the world. Multilingual, she recorded many songs in different languages, including Mandarin, Cantonese, Japanese, Vietnamese and English, using a style that uniquely bridged the gap between traditional Chinese music and western culture. For the first time, western people were able to hear modern Chinese music and as a result Teresa become highly popular around the world.

She sang many songs that were to become quite famous during the 1970's and 80's, including "Small Town Story" , "The Moon Represents My Heart" and "When Will You Return", all of which became well known in counties outside China, including Japan where she became very well known.

She was an asthmatic and tragically died from this condition in 1995, but her music has enjoyed a continually rising popularity around the world ever since.

A wax likeness of Teresa Teng located at Madame Tussauds in Hong Kong.
(Image Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

In Australia, exposure to Chinese culture rose markedly during the 1990's and Teresa Teng was increasingly heard. In my case I had the good fortune to work with some Chinese meteorologists during this time and was introduced to the talents of Teresa. I have enjoyed them ever since.

Some of her wonderful songs can be heard here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDO6V5ueVv0&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97-GXzi6PPw&feature=fvwrel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMw2U8KqqHE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9VaF-7YMY8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mudPvCtwLsU

Earthquake in New Zealand

2011-02-22T15:39:00.014+11:00

At 12.51 local time on February 22nd, a powerful earthquake of magnitude 6.3 occurred only 10km from Christchurch in New Zealand.

What has made this earthquake particularly devastating is that it occurred only 5 km below the surface which is a shallow depth.

Although not as powerful as the 7.1 earthquake that hit on September 4 last year, because of its location and depth this event has been far more catastrophic for Christchurch. The September quake was some 40 km from the city at a depth of about 10km below the ground.

The quake was one of the most devastating in the history of New Zealand, producing massive property damage and a death toll that may reach close to 200.

The Pacific "Ring of "Fire". Image from Wikipedia Commons - Click to enlarge)

New Zealand lies on the western branch of the so called Pacific Ring of Fire – a geologically active area that extends from New Zealand up through Tonga, New Guinea, Indonesia, the Phillipines, Japan, and down the west coasts of North and South America.

Earthquakes and volcanic activity are common along this ring but two major earthquakes near Christchurch only five months apart has not been seen before in recorded history.

The tectonic plates of the world -the Pacific Ring of Fire (in purple) follows a large part of the circumference of the Pacific plate. Image from Wikipedia Commons - Click to enlarge)

New Zealand lies across an area where the Australian tectonic plate grinds into the Pacific plate, creating an area of seismic instability.

The collision of these two plates also causes earthquakes around Tonga, Vanuatu and New Guinea.

The Most Famous Photograph of All

2011-02-17T08:11:00.011+11:00

Above - the official Apollo 17 insignia (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

"The world, after all our science and sciences, is still a miracle; wonderful, inscrutable, magical and more, to whosoever will think of it". - Thomas Carlyle, Scottish essayist and historian.

The Apollo 17 Space Mission blasted off from the Kennedy Space Centre in the early hours of December 7, 1972, bound for the Moon. The Mission was to be one of the most successful of all time, setting numerous records along the way, including the longest manned lunar landing flight, the longest time in lunar orbit, the longest lunar excursions (using the Lunar Rover vehicle) and the biggest payload of "Moonrock" ever collected. It was to be the last time that man walked on the Moon in the twentieth century.

Despite all these mighty achievements, the Mission is probably best remembered for something else, something much smaller, but destined to become one of the iconic products from all of human spaceflight history.

After a little more than 5 hours into the Mission, Apollo had left parking orbit around the Earth and was on track for the Moon. The fully illuminated disc of the Earth appeared in stunning beauty through the window of the spacecraft, amazing the flight crew of Eugene Cernan, Ronald Evans and Jack Schmitt. It appeared to them as an intricate blue and white glass marble suspended in the black emptiness of space around.

The Apollo 17 crew: from left to right Jack Schmitt, Eugene Cernan (seated) and Ronald Evans. (Courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

They were equipped with a 70 mm Hasselblad Camera with an 80 mm lens, and Jack Schmitt pointed this through the window and snapped away. The result was possibly the most famous photograph ever taken, an image that is believed to be the most widely distributed in history.

It showed an entire hemisphere of the Earth bathed in brilliant sunlight - Africa and the Arabian peninsular are clearly visible, as well as various cloud patterns and the sparkling blue of the oceans. And, for the first time, the Antarctic ice cap was photographed from space.

Planet Earth, December 7 1972 (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

Soon after returning to Earth, the image was disseminated to the public and became "front page" around the world. Scientists and meteorologists were amazed with the detail revealed and others just marvelled at the beauty of our planet. Here the cradle of life as we know it, from ancient times, to the dinosaurs, to early civilisations, with culture, art, warfare all playing out over the millennia, was laid before us in photographic form.

The image is credited with launching the environmental movement. Earth appears both beautiful but delicate, and many then realised that it was finite and cannot be exploited without limit.

Some of the main features of the image (Click to enlarge)

This photograph became known as "The Blue Marble" and despite the fact that it was taken many years ago, it has never lost its marvel and relevance.

On December 7 2012 it will be forty years since Jack Schmitt aimed his Hasselblad camera through the window and produced this timeless image. I've made a note in my diary so that I don't forget this important anniversary.

See also
http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/02/weather-from-space.html

Weather From Space

2011-02-13T20:52:00.023+11:00

The first ever image of the Earth taken from space by TIROS 1, on April 1st 1960. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

“We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won, and they must be won and used for the progress of all people. For space science, like nuclear science and all technology, has no conscience of its own.

Whether it will become a force for good or ill depends on man, and only if the United States occupies a position of pre-eminence can we help decide whether this new ocean will be a sea of peace or a new, terrifying theatre of war.”

President John F. Kennedy
Rice University Stadium
Houston, Texas
September 12, 1962

Since the launch of the first meteorological satellite, Tiros 1, in 1960 there has been a steady proliferation of “eyes in the sky”, constantly sending back to earth images of the weather far below.

Most of these “eyes” are unmanned space vehicles, equipped with increasingly sophisticated instrument packages, which not only perform weather photography but can also undertake many other scanning functions, such as the monitoring of crops
and the tracking the movement of mosquitoes across continents.

Some of these are polar orbiting satellites, and others are in geostationary orbit, but all are vital sources of environmental data, and are constantly used by a diversity of Government and non-Government agencies.

Manned space vehicles have also been used to photograph the Earth from above, and these images have been collected from the early days of the Mercury Project (1961 to 1963), all the way up to today’s regular Space Shuttle flights. Although some of the older images in this category date back more than 40 years, their relevance and sheer majesty remain as important today as when they were first taken.

Image taken from Gemini 7, November 13 1966, above Baja California (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

The USA Manned Space Program

Much of the early manual photography from space was not intended to highlight the weather, but was more focussed on landforms and cities, as well as on-board tasks and activities.

However, many of the photographs taken, which were not intended for meteorological purposes, still contain some fascinating images of weather phenomena.

The entire program can be divided into the time series

Mercury Project Flights 1961-63
Gemini Project Flights 1965-66
Apollo Project Flights 1968-72
Apollo-Soyez/SkyLab 1973-75
The Space Shuttle Pre-Challenger 1972 – 1988
Space Shuttle Post-Challenger 1988 – present

The USA manned space flight program began in 1961 with a Mercury Project sub orbital flight commanded by astronaut Alan B. Shepard, Jr, in his “Freedom 7” spacecraft, and then expanded rapidly, culminating with the “Man on the Moon” Apollo missions, which ran between 1968 and 1972.

Official portrait of Alan Shepard taken 12 December 1963, dressed in his Mercury pressure suit and holding his space helmet. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

Photographs of the Earth taken by astronauts on these missions created a sensation in scientific circles, as well as for the general public, and were widely disseminated in newspapers, magazines and in special issue collections of boxed slides.

When the “full Earth” images from the Apollo Projects appeared, unprecedented world wide interest was generated, and the fabulous “Earth rise” photographs, showing the Earth appearing above the lunar horizon, would surely be one of the most famous series of images ever taken.

View of the Earth “rising” over the Moon's horizon, taken from the Apollo 11 spacecraft on 16 July 1969. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

The tradition then continued with the Apollo-Soyez/SkyLab projects, which were launched between 1973 and 1975, right through to the Space Shuttle missions of today.

All these photographs are still of considerable interest to the meteorologist, as many weather phenomena, such as hurricanes, cold fronts, low pressure cells, jet streams and thunderstorms were brilliantly captured, contributing greatly to our knowledge of the structures of these systems.

Unmanned Space Vehicles

While the manned space program was under way, an ever increasing number of unmanned vehicles was also launched, and many of these were designed for specifically monitoring the weather, and in recent times, more general aspects of the environment.

From the vague, primitive imagery of Tiros 1, we have progressed to high-resolution photography of astonishing detail, in which information from meteorological satellites has been augmented with that from broader function “environmental” satellites.

There are two general varieties of these satellites.

(a) Polar-orbiting vehicles, which take measurements from an altitude of between 250 to 850 km, (~155 to 525 miles) scanning over several different wavelengths.

Such satellite images provide information on a wide variety of weather phenomena, including the extent of fog, floods, snow cover and sea ice, sea surface temperatures and ocean waves, temperatures, humidity and pressures throughout the troposphere, and on upper wind speed and direction, which can be derived from cloud movements.

The images also display cloud formations associated with hurricanes, cold fronts and jet streams, and can also capture smaller scale features such as mountain waves and von Karman vortices, caused by disturbed airflow around raised features such as islands.

Intricate von Karman vortices produced by winds blowing around the Cape Verde Islands off north-western Africa. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

(b) Geostationary satellites, revolve around the earth at a height of 36,000 km (22,320 miles) over the equator at the same speed as the earth turns – a feature which is called “solid rotation”.

Successive images provide a moving picture of clouds as they form, are carried by the winds, and finally dissipate, enabling estimations of wind speed and direction at different altitudes in the atmosphere to be calculated. This is of vital importance in forecasting the speed of movements of such phenomena as cold fronts, low pressure cells and hurricanes.

Several different countries have launched their own meteorological satellites, including both the polar orbiting and geostationary varieties. These include METEOR (Russia), NOAA (USA), METEOSTAT (Europe), GOES-E and GOES-W (USA), GMS (Japan), FENGYUN (China) and INSAT (India).

Environmental satellites

In very recent times, the next generation of environmental satellites have been launched, and these are providing dazzling images of a variety of global phenomena, including very high-resolution views of the weather.

The USA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites Terra and Aqua, carry the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) package, which is a key instrument in monitoring climate change through the observation of sea ice, glacier extent and ocean levels.

Another USA environmental space vehicle is SeaStar, which carries the highly advanced SeaWifs (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) package. This is designed to monitor and study the role of oceans in determining our climate, including the exchange of critical elements and gases between the atmosphere and ocean, and how these exchanges affect microscopic marine plant (phytoplankton) production.

A dust-storm from out of Africa blows across the Mediterranean towards Sicily to western Greece. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

In performing these diverse functions, MODIS and SeaWifs have also captured some amazing weather-related images that have contributed substantially to our knowledge of the weather and the effects that it produces.

The role of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) cannot be overstated here. Imagery collected from NASA space programs has always been made freely available across the Internet and this has revolutionised public understanding of the structure of our atmosphere. It has also provided educational material of tremendous value to everyone around the world and greatly increased public interest in the science of meteorology.

Some great weather imagery can be accessed from the following NASA web sites:

http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/sseop/EFS/atmo.htm

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/

Weather Station "Kurt"

2011-02-06T10:36:00.012+11:00

Weather forecasting has improved steadily over the last thirty years or so, and there are probably three main reasons for this. Firstly we have vastly improved access to satellite imagery, with increasing frequency and quality becoming available. And then mathematical modeling of the weather using ever more powerful computers has advanced considerably during this time. And, tied in with this, is the continually expanding network of automatic weather stations (AWS’s) that provides high quality observational data for input into the forecasting process.

Above: A technician services the sensor of an automatic weather station. (Image: Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

AWS’s are high tech instruments providing a continuous stream of weather information that is channelled into computers to power the mathematical models used for weather prediction. Consisting of a “black box” packed with electronics and sensors, they provide measurements of temperature, humidity, rainfall, barometric pressure and also wind speed and direction and then transmit this information back to a main meteorological centre.

An automatic weather station being installed in Antarctica (Image Wikipedia Commons, William N. Connolley - click to enlarge)

They can be powered by solar cells in remote locations, or, if a suitable source exists, from mains electricity.

It is generally assumed that AWS’s are modern instruments but a surprising find emerged in the late 1970’s when a retired German technician Franz Selinger, began writing the history of the Siemens Company, and discovered old files indicating that during World War 2 Siemens had manufactured a type of automatic weather station called Wetter-Funkgerat Land (WFL) with twenty six of these eventually built.

The Germans had needed weather information from around the Atlantic Ocean to plan their U-Boat operations and had intended to install WFL units at various locations that would transmit weather data back to Germany by radio. Then further research revealed an amazing story that had occurred during the war but had been almost totally forgotten in the mists of time.

In 1943, the German submarine U-537 departed from Kiel carrying a normal combat crew, but also a meteorologist Dr. Kurt Sommermeyer and a Siemens WFL unit codenamed “Weather Station Kurt”.

In a top-secret James Bond style operation, U-537 arrived in a remote area called Martin Bay in far northeastern Canada, and an armed party, accompanied by Sommermeyer, went ashore and successfully installed WFL “Kurt” on a rocky outcrop before departing without detection. It is believed that this was the only enemy landing on North American soil during the Second World War. Some idea of the remoteness of Martin Bay can be seen in the last photo of the series at

http://www.wright-photo.com/northlabradorcoast1.htm

The battery powered “Kurt” was designed to transmit weather information in code every three hours and this it did, although the data flow ceased after only a few days. This could have been a technical malfunction or the result of radio jamming by Allied forces.

“Kurt” was then forgotten but following Selinger’s research a possible location was revealed. In 1981 the Canadian Coastguard investigated, and to everyone’s amazement, rediscovered “Kurt” standing alone on the rocky knoll where it had been installed 38 years before. Canadian technicians were surprised at the highly advanced array of meteorological instruments and supporting telemetry systems that were built into “Kurt” – it compared well with even modern automatic weather stations.

The instrument was then restored and is currently located in the Canadian War Museum in Ottawa.

Weather station "Kurt" today showing the instrument masts and battery canisters painted in military camouflage livery. (Image: Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

"Yasi" versus "Tracy" - A Tale of Two Cyclones

2011-02-04T08:33:00.021+11:00

Severe tropical cyclone "Yasi" smashed across the north Queensland coast near Mission Beach, just to the south of Innisfail, around midnight on 2nd February. Producing wind gusts in excess of 200 kph, massive oceanic storm surges and torrential rain, it cut a trail of destruction through the area, with hundreds of houses destroyed or damaged, marinas smashed, massive dislocation of infrastructure and a devastation of Queensland's banana industry.

Above: Tropical cyclone "Yasi" approaches the Queensland coastline on 2nd February 2011. (Image courtesy of NASA, USA, click to enlarge)

Some 37 years before, on Christmas morning of 1974, tropical cyclone "Tracy" had stormed across Darwin, flattening a large area of the city and cutting off communications with the rest of the world for some six hours.

Both cyclones were probably of similar strength although "Yasi" was a far larger cyclone in area than the compact "Tracy".

Satellite imagery of "Tracy", Christmas morning 1974. Comparison of this with the image above of "Yasi" shows the progress made in this area. Only two such images were received every day in 1974, and now they are available every hour. (Image courtesy of NOAA, USA)

But when comparing these two major disasters there is one vastly different outcome. 65 people lost their lives in "Tracy", and at the time of writing there are no known deaths attributed to "Yasi" although two people remain unaccounted for. But why is this so?

Firstly, weather prediction in general, and cyclone prediction in particular, has improved enormously since 1974. The availability of higher quality and more frequent satellite imagery, together with information from a larger number of automatic weather stations, has made a big difference.

Devastation across Darwin produced by Tracy in December 1974. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

But one of the major factors is the progress in computer simulation of the atmosphere. The predicted tracks of tropical cyclones have become increasingly accurate, with useful warnings now issued up to a week ahead and this allows the population in affected areas to be well prepared.

An interesting example here concerns the week before "Yasi" when tropical cyclone "Anthony" formed off the north Queensland coast. The computer simulation predicted that it would then move southeast, before reversing direction and heading back towards the coastline. And this is precisely what happened, with the highly erratic path accurately predicted by Queensland meteorologists. This type of forecast was well outside the capabilities of meteorology in 1974.

And then there are the social factors - public education about tropical cyclones has raised awareness of the dangers of these systems and warnings are regarded far more seriously than in 1974. In the run up to "Tracy" warnings for tropical cyclone "Selma" were issued, but this system passed just by Darwin with little impact. For many this proved that weather forecasters "always got it wrong" and subsequent warnings for Tracy were largely ignored.

The role of NASA should be mentioned here - NASA is the acronym for the US based National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and NASA satellite imagery, such as that of "Yasi" above, is made freely available across the internet. This has been of immense value in raising interest and providing educational background to severe weather events such as cyclones and is therefore an enormous contribution. NASA's image web site can be found at

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/

The nature of the media has also changed. Television, in particular, will only run a story if "vision" is available and many severe weather events of the past were not covered for this reason. Now we have widespread availability of mobile phones that can take stills and movies good enough to use. This has revolutionised television coverage of severe weather events. Social media such as tweets, twitter and blogs have also produced major impact in raising community readiness.

Back in 1974, tropical cyclones were not big news in the southern states until they actually hit - now we have massive national media coverage well in advance, with The Weather Channel, I'm proud to say, playing a leading role.

The Weather Channel's satellite display showing the remnants of "Yasi" moving across northern Queensland.
(Click to enlarge)
http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/

The integration of meteorology with State emergency services has advanced considerably. This ensures that people are warned early, evacuated from areas of danger, and also allows the recovery to be managed more efficiently.

The use of the Press Conference, involving in this case the Premier of Queensland Anna Bligh, before the cyclone struck, and then during the aftermath, was also of immense value, and more than likely has saved lives and reduced property damage.

The considerable sum invested by Australia in the area of tropical cyclone warning and prediction has been more than worth it, and will continue to produce positive outcomes in disastrous situations.

In early 1975 the Australian duo "Bill and Boyd" composed the following song as a fundraiser for the victims of "Tracy" - it's a rare example of a song composed in response to a weather disaster.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJi_kBIiZ4A&feature=related

Fu-Go - The Balloon Bombs of Japan

2011-02-01T21:05:00.009+11:00

One of the most remarkable weapons of the Second World War was the so-called Japanese balloon bomb or “Fu Go” that was an early example of using the winds in the upper atmosphere to conduct a military attack.

During the latter stages of the war, people in various parts of the USA became aware of sudden explosions that appeared to be taking place in random fashion across the country. Little damage was done but the US Military, particularly the Air Force, became increasingly interested.

After investigating the site of one such explosion they made an astonishing discovery. It appeared as though the explosions had been caused by bombs carried by some type of lighter than air balloon - and a very large one at that. It was calculated that the balloon in question was, when inflated, about 10m (33 ft) in diameter.

Above: A captured Fu-Go balloon relaunched by the American Military for research purposes. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

By examining the sand ballast attached to the object they were able to establish that the sand came from Japan and that the balloon was filled with hydrogen. Furthermore it was found that the balloon itself was made from a special type of paper called washi – a Japanese product.

It was realised that the Japanese were launching bomb-carrying balloons from Japan, and these were climbing to an altitude of around 10km where they were picked up by the upper level jet stream that carried them across the Pacific Ocean to the United States. After a journey of around three days the balloons arrived over North America and the bombs, usually consisting of incendiary and antipersonnel devices, were jettisoned automatically.

Left: The Fu-Gos were carried across the Pacific Ocean from Japan to North America in the upper air jet streams. A typical journey took three days. (Click to enlarge)

Jet streams are high speed rivers of air moving from west to east in the upper levels of the atmosphere and occur as a result of temperature differences and the spin of the Earth. Wind speeds in excess of 250 kph (155 mph) sometimes occur.
The jet stream made visible by cloud. This view taken from the Space Shuttle, shows the jet stream across eastern Canada in May 1991. (NASA image - click to enlarge)

Normally there are four such streams, two in each hemisphere, called the polar jet and subtropical jet and these tend to move in waves around the Earth. These jets also move north and south according to the seasons and affect different parts of the USA at different times of the year.

The US Government wanted to avoid public panic and ordered that the presence of the balloons be kept secret, but after a family was killed by an explosion in Southern Oregon, warnings were issued to the public.

Between November 1944 and April 1945 the Japanese launched some 9300 balloons with around 300 reaching the USA. Bombs were dropped over widespread areas including Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Michigan and Iowa, as well as Mexico and Canada. Interestingly there were a few cases where the balloons missed their mark and circumnavigated the globe, crossing back over Japan after a week or so in the air.

Government authorities were particularly worried that the incendiary bombs could trigger forest fires and even more by the possibility that the balloons could be used to introduce biological agents and livestock diseases into the USA. Fighters were ordered to intercept and shoot down the balloons wherever possible but after B29 bomber raids destroyed two of Japan’s main hydrogen producing plants in April of 1945, the Japanese abandoned the offensive.

Left: Gun camera footage of Fu-Go's being shot down by American fighters during the latter stages of World War 2. (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

The Fu Go balloon bomb would go down in the history books as a fairly ineffective device but it produced widespread concern across the USA and was one of the very few times the mainland of North America was actually attacked by an enemy during armed conflict.

The Queensland Floods

2011-01-16T19:49:00.006+11:00

The recent disastrous flooding in Queensland is closely connected with the La Nina phenomena, when waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cool, and warmer ocean areas gather closer to northeast Australia.

Put simply, rain tends to cluster around the warmest parts of the ocean because the warmth produces rising air, and this in turn generates cloud and rain. La Ninas are usually associated with enhanced rainfall over eastern Australia with moist tropical air often extending down from Queensland well into the southern states, even as far as Tasmania, where flooding occurred during the second week in January 2011.

The present La Nina weather pattern across Australia kicked in rapidly around May of 2010, flipping across from the opposite El Nino phase that is usually associated with dry weather for eastern Australia.

The onset of the La Nina resulted in a rising crescendo of major rainfall events that rolled across Queensland from September onwards. Catchments right across the state became increasingly saturated as one rainfall event followed another.

The Barron Falls inland from Cairns, in raging flood during January 2011. Photo by Barbara Menz.

At the end of 2010 most of the catchments across south-eastern Queensland were totally saturated and any additional rainfall would then just run off into the adjacent river systems – a critical situation to be in during only the early stages of the Australian tropical wet season.

Disastrous flash flooding erupted through Toowoomba on Monday 10th January, when a wall of water swept through the town, killing an unknown number of people and causing immense property damage as houses and cars were literally swept away by the deluge. This occurred as high intensity rainfall, around 100mm in just one hour, fell on the already saturated catchment of the Lockyer Creek.

Major flooding then burst across much of southeast Queensland on Tuesday 11th and Wednesday 12th January with Brisbane itself inundated as the Brisbane River burst its banks and rose to levels just short of the 1974 flood. The degree of flooding in the area places the disaster in the “top three” of floods, alongside 1893 and 1974.

Major flooding around Boonah in Queensland in January 2011. Photograph by Leona Taylor.

The La Nina phenomenon marches to an irregular beat but has always been a big part of Australia’s climate, as has the opposite El Nino phase. Dorothea Mackellar summed up their impact poetically when she described our climate as one of “droughts and flooding rains”. Indeed it has been said, somewhat tongue in cheek, that average rainfall in many parts of Australia equals drought plus flood divided by two.

Following the massive flooding of early 2011, many people are asking if climate change is somehow behind the tremendous rainfall intensity we have just seen. Here expert opinion is somewhat divided.

Total inundation of the surrounding countryside near Moorang, Queensland during January 2011. Photo by Angela Gray

Some climatologists believe that rising ocean temperatures around northern Australia, that are about 1.5C above pre 1970’s levels, will produce more intense La Ninas, even if their frequency remains the same. Warmer oceans produce warmer air above and an atmosphere of this type can hold far more moisture that then becomes available for rain.

The unusually strong monsoon that produced devastating floods across India and China around mid 2010, followed by the flooding disaster in Pakistan in August has been linked to this pattern.

However other experts have remarked that although it is almost certain that rising ocean temperatures will be affecting the La Nina/El Nino see-saw it is too early to say how. They point out that the period of recorded history is too short to reach any firm conclusion.

However there is little doubt that the extraordinary weather events that occurred right around the world during 2010, together with our own Australian experience of extreme weather, has brought the topic of climate change back on the front page after a notable absence during much of 2010.

I'm a Neanderthal Man

2011-01-09T20:28:00.018+11:00

In 1829 and 1848 skeletal remains of heavily built “humanoid type” creatures were discovered in Belgium and Gibraltar, triggering massive scientific interest. Then in 1856, in the Neandertal Valley in Westphalia, Germany, further fossil evidence of the same type was indentified and given the name “Neanderthal Man”.

For the first time scientists realised that it was likely that another "homo species", running parallel with our own Homo sapiens, existed many millennia ago but for some reason had died out, leaving Homo sapiens to develop into the modern human being.

Many more similar skeletons were later discovered across parts of Europe, the Middle East, western and central Asia and southern parts of Great Britain, but interestingly not in Africa, believed to be the birthplace of Homo sapiens.

Above: The skeleton of a Neanderthal Man in the American Museum of Natural History. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The remains of more than 400 Neanderthals have been discovered since, and dating of these indicates that they existed from around 130,000 years to 30,000 years before the present time, before unaccountably disappearing.

The sites where Neanderthal remains have been discovered. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Using forensic reconstruction techniques based on existing skeletons, scientists have been able to make an educated guess as to their appearance. The males were about 165 to 168 cm (65 to 66 inches) in height with the females a little smaller at 152 to 156 cm. (60 to 61 inches). This was about the same height as the Homo sapiens of the same era.

However the skeletal evidence indicates that the Neanderthals were far more thickset, and the large bones point to the fact that stronger muscle groups would have anchored Neanderthals together. They would have been far more powerful than Homo sapiens, perhaps of similar strength to the modern chimpanzee.

But far from being the hulking, unintelligent brutes of folklore, recent evidence reveals many modern traits about the Neanderthals. It is now believed that they made weapons and tools, cooked, lived in family groups, developed a language and wore clothing.

It appears that Neanderthals disappeared around 30,000 years ago after cohabiting their area with Homo sapiens for some 20,000 to 30,000 thousand years.

And the fascinating question arising from this disappearance is obviously – what caused it?

There are several theories and these include

(a) Climate change
(b) Increased competition from and possibly warfare with Homo sapiens
(c) Interbreeding and absorption with Homo sapiens.

The most significant climate event during the time of the Neanderthals, as deduced from Antarctic ice data, was a sudden jump in global temperatures from around 120 to 110 thousand years ago, followed by a marked cooling from that point to about 100 thousand years ago. Global temperatures then fluctuated erratically over the next 30,000 years.

Temperature fluctuations during the time of the Neanderthals - did these lead to extinction? (Click to enlarge)

It has been suggested that these temperature variations produced significant changes in the vegetation patterns, together with the various dependant animal species. This may have tested the Neanderthals ability to cope with change, with the competing Homo sapiens more effective in this respect.

Another possibility is that increased competition and possibly warfare occurred with Homo sapiens, with the latter winning out through slightly more efficient social skills and cooperation.

But another, more fascinating theory, is that the Neanderthals did not disappear at all but were absorbed through interbreeding with Homo sapiens and continue to live on in the genes of modern humans. This theory has received some powerful reinforcement in recent times when researchers were able to reconstruct the genome sequence of the Neanderthals and found that “up to 2 percent of the DNA in the genome of present-day humans outside of Africa originated in Neanderthals or in Neanderthals' ancestors”.

This interbreeding appeared to take place between 80,000 and 50,000 years ago across parts of the Middle East before spreading to other areas across Europe.

The interbreeding hypothesis is still an area of scientific debate, but the mystique and intrigue surrounding what could be our closest ancestor continues to fascinate the scientific community, as well as the general public.

In 1970, the British band “Hotlegs” wrote a song called Neanderthal Man that was interspersed with the chorus:

"I'm a Neanderthal man
You're a Neanderthal girl
Let's make Neanderthal love
In this Neanderthal world."

Hear it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e0qYP_PTlY&feature=grec_index

Although the lyrics were far from award winning, Neanderthal Man reached No.2 in the UK Singles chart in July 1970 and No. 22 in the US, ultimately selling two million copies worldwide. It success was possibly due in part to the fascination we have for this strange and enigmatic being that trod the Earth so long ago and may continue to exist as part of us today.

References:
http://www.genome.gov/27539119

http://www.chrisdellavedova.com/2007/10/30/science-tuesday-chatty-redheads-or-dirty-hands/comment-page-1/

That Mother Board

2011-01-03T10:07:00.016+11:00

“Dem Bones” is a very clever melody that was written by the acclaimed African American author and songwriter James Weldon Johnson (1871 to 1938) as a way of teaching children the basic anatomy of the human body.

Left: James Weldon Johnson, a man of kaleidoscopic talents who was at various times in his life a writer, lawyer, university professor, diplomat, teacher, civil rights worker and anthologist. (Image Wikipedia Commons )

It was written in traditional spiritual style and was not only an entertaining and instructive teaching aid but also became a highly popular novelty item on the hit parades of several countries, including Australia, in the 1940’ and 50’s.

One of the choruses goes like this:

The head-bone connected to the neck-bone, 
The neck-bone connected to the back-bone 
The backbone connected to the thigh-bone
 The thighbone connected to the knee-bone
 The knee-bone connected to the leg bone 
The leg bone connected to the foot bone 
Oh hear the word of the Lord

A great 1950's version of the song, as performed by the Delta Rhythm Boys singing ultra smooth five-part harmonies, can be heard here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYb8Wm6-QfA

After recently hearing a version of the song, just by coincidence, it occurred to me that we need a more modern version to explain the mysteries of the computer world to the over sixties (like me), so I’ve had a try, borrowing from James Johnson's idea. Here’s the result:

That Mother Board

The Wifi’s connected to the I phone
The I phone’s connected to the e-zone
The e-zone’s connected to the ring tone
It's the word of the Mother Board

The Airports connected to the Blue Tooth
The Blue tooth’s connected to the tweet zone
The tweet zones connected to the batch file
It's the word of the Mother Board

The bitmaps connected to the Android
The Androids connected to the hard drive
The hard drive’s connected to the firewall
It's the word of the Mother Board

The half tones connected to the V-Ram
The V-Rams connected with the screen shot
The screen shots connected with the inkjet
It's the word of the Mother Board

The clock speeds connected to the bandwidth
The bandwidth’s connected with the add-on
The add-ons connected with the ASCII
It's the word of the Mother Board
It's the word of the Mother Board!

To the Baby Boomers - hope that makes it all clear.

James Weldon Johnson was one of the most influential and high achieving black Americans of the early twentieth century. He was one of the very first African American professors at New York University and later became a professor of creative literature and writing at Fisk University.

In 1988 the United States Postal Service issued a 22 cent postage stamp in his honour.

References:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Weldon_Johnson

http://www.suite101.com/content/usps-black-heritage-stamps---james-weldon-johnson-a267955

Sugar Ray and Joey Maxim - In the Heat of the Night

2010-12-14T21:47:00.014+11:00

The weather affects many areas of human endeavour in a whole variety of ways but one of the strangest and most famous of these concerned a world title boxing bout that took place in New York back in 1952.

The summer of that year proved to be one of the hottest ever across many parts of the United States, affecting most areas from the Continental Divide to the Atlantic coast. During June of 1952 monthly temperatures were an astonishing 10F above normal in Kansas City, and Nashville’s maximum temperatures for the month beat the previous record by 3F.

From the 24th to the end of the month, temperatures climbed above 100F as far north as Boston and Detroit, and many all time temperature records were broken as the searing heatwave marched across America.

During this furnace-like week, most offices and factories throughout New York and Detroit that weren’t air conditioned sent their employees home early and thousands flocked to the beach around Coney Island and Rockaway where they stayed overnight to try and escape the oppressive heat of the inner city.

In the middle of this heatwave a world championship boxing bout had been scheduled at Yankee Stadium, and a most unusual one at that.

Yankee Stadium in the late 1920's
(Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The world middleweight champion Sugar Ray Robinson had challenged the world light heavyweight champion Joey Maxim for his crown. Robinson had already won two other world titles at lesser weights, and this would have given him world titles in three different weight divisions – an almost unprecedented achievement.

The World Middleweight Champion in 1952 - Sugar Ray Robinson. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Normally a middleweight would have little chance against a light heavyweight, but Sugar Ray Robinson was no ordinary fighter, even by world championship standards. Equipped with silky speed and a killer punch in either hand, he was rated by many as the best ever boxer, pound for pound, in the history of the ring.

Joey Maxim - the World Light Heavyweight Champion in 1952 (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Maxim was big and strong and the fact that he was world light heavyweight champion meant he was a very tough hombre. The fight promised to be a fascinating one.

It was organised for 10 pm on the night of June 25 1952, outdoors at Yankee Stadium, and, as it turned out, in the middle of the New York heatwave. Robinson weighed in at 160 pounds and Maxim 175 – a big advantage. As the two fighters climbed in to the ring the temperature was measured on the ring apron as 104F, with high humidity conditions adding to the acute discomfort.

The fight commenced and then proceeded pretty much as the experts had predicted with the much faster Robinson scoring punches at will and piling up a big points lead over the first nine rounds. He even managed to stagger Maxim with a big right hand in the seventh.

Then things began to go awry for Robinson. His fast style was generating great heat from his muscles – heat that couldn’t be dissipated in the ultra hot and humid conditions. The core heat of his body began to rise and he started to show signs of imbalance, disorientation and exhaustion – all classic symptoms of hyperthermia or heat exhaustion.

In the meantime, people in the audience had been collapsing with the heat, and the sweat soaked referee Goldstein signalled that he could not go on after round ten. He was replaced by the reserve referee, Ray Miller.

In the thirteenth round Robinson threw a huge right hand, missed, and then fell flat on his face. He was a man noted for his superb balance in the ring so this rang alarm bells all through the crowd.

This moment was captured in the photograph here:

http://www.antekprizering.com/maximrobinson9815.html

He was just able to last to the end of the round.

But he was unable to answer the bell for the start of the fourteenth round and Maxim was declared the winner by way of knockout. It was the first time that Sugar Ray had ever been stopped inside the distance.

It took a totally spent Ray Robinson some 6 weeks to recover from the fight and he always claimed it was the heat, rather than Maxim that had beaten him.

However Maxim himself denied that heat was the main factor. He later said "Did I have air conditioning in my corner? I pushed him all night. He knocked himself out".

Sugar Ray, after a brief retirement from the ring, came back and regained his world middleweight crown and went on fighting until 1965 when he was 43 years of age. He was named the greatest fighter of the 20th Century by the Associated Press, and the greatest boxer ever by ESPN.com in 2007. Perhaps of even more significance, Ring Magazine voted him the best pound for pound fighter of all time. He died in 1989 aged 68.

Joey Maxim lost his world title soon after the Robinson fight and eventually retired from the ring in 1959. He was inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame in 1994, and died in 2001, aged 79.

Vision of this famous fight can be seen here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV8lTKRrE_o

For information about one of Australia's best ever fighters go to

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2012/01/young-griffo-zephyr-of-ring.html

Reference: Sugar Ray, Putnam and Company, London, 1969

How to Make a Good Cup of Tea

2010-12-11T12:44:00.009+11:00

Recently I attended a meeting of the local Rotary Club where the guest speaker was a coffee and tea specialist. He planned to deliver a talk on a topic that seemed to me at the time to be a rather boring subject.

But it certainly was not and instead it turned out to be both interesting and instructive.

It was how to make a good cup of tea.

Above - A tea leaf (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Tea making goes back many centuries and was originally practiced in China, India, Sri Lanka, Tibet and Burma before later spreading to Russia, Japan and Korea. Tea itself became a valuable trade item with the West during the nineteenth century and now continues to be widely enjoyed in most countries.

A tea plantation in India (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The famous English vessel the "Cutty Sark" was a fast sailing ship specially built for transporting tea from China back to Britain and was one of several vessels of the time known as "tea clippers".

But according to our Rotary Club expert, despite our great familiarity with this drink it continues to be be prepared wrongly, producing a bitter taste that we have to mask by adding milk and sugar. He demonstrated by preparing a brew using the correct method and the result was transforming - a great taste with no milk or sugar required.

The "Cutty Sark" preserved at Greenwich, England. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - Atelier Joly - click to enlarge)

Here's how you do it.

Use leaf tea (not tea bags) - preferably from India, China or Sri Lanka as these tend to be the best quality. Measure out two or three teaspoons into your pot depending on how strong you want to make it. Then add boiling water, as soon as possible after reaching the boiling point. If you let it cool before addition the flavour is degraded.

And now the vital point - let it stand for 20 to 30 seconds BUT NO LONGER. After 30 seconds astringents are released from the tea leaves that produce an unpleasant and bitter taste.

You can then pour your tea into a cup - if possible through a filter - or you can separate it from the leaves into another pot. You'll find that a mild and smooth flavour is produced with no milk or sugar required.

The technique applies to all types of tea including the camomile, green and herbal varieties.

Common myths:

(1) Use a spoonful of tea for each person and add one for the pot - almost guaranteed to produce a strong and bitter brew.

(2) The pot should be heated with boiling water before the tea is added - this makes virtually no difference.

Kamikaze - The Divine Winds of Japan

2010-12-04T10:01:00.006+11:00

We are all familiar with the word “kamikaze” used as a reference to the large group of young Japanese men that formed the world’s first suicide pilot squadrons during World War 2. Kamikaze pilots flew their aircraft, usually packed with explosives, into allied ships operating in the Pacific Ocean during 1944 and 1945 in an attempt to inflict maximum possible damage at the expense of the life of the pilot.

The kamikaze squadrons inflicted a large amount of damage on allied shipping but were too late to change the course of the war.

However the term “kamikaze” was not originally used to describe suicidal military action but was in fact used many centuries earlier to describe two famous meteorological events that occurred when the Mongol warlord, Kublai Khan twice tried to invade Japan using formidable naval armadas.

Portrait of Kublai Khan, circa 1265 (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The first time, in the year 1274, the Mongol fleet was smashed by a typhoon, with an estimated loss of one in three ships and more than 10,000 warriors drowned.

Kublai Khan tried again, seven years later, in the year 1281, this time with part of his fleet successfully landing in Hakata Bay where they were fought off by Japan’s Samurai warriors. However the Mongol fleet was reinforced by a much larger naval force some two months later and it seemed that the Japanese would be overrun.

Then, amazingly, another typhoon blasted across the area, this time doing far more damage than had been seen in 1274. Some 3000 ships were sunk with thousands of invading Mongols drowned. Kublai Khan gave up the idea of a Japanese invasion after this disaster.

Depiction of the loss of the second Mongol fleet in the typhoon of 1281. This was painted by the Japanese artist Kikuchi Yosai in 1847. (Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The Japanese had twice been saved from invasion by the mighty blasts of typhoons, and these storms were thereafter named “Kamikaze”, or “Divine Winds” that had been sent by the Gods to save their country.

Tropical revolving storms are called “hurricanes” in the Americas and this is from the Mayan storm God “Hunrakan”, although the Caribs also had their God of Evil named “Hurican”. Throughout the far-east, including Japan, they are known as typhoons, and this is derived from the Chinese “tai fung” meaning “great wind”. However there is also an Arabic word “ tufan” meaning a sudden or violent storm, and this, in turn may be related to the ancient Greek word “tuphon”, meaning “father of the winds”.

In India, Australia and Bangladesh these storms are known as tropical cyclones.

It has been estimated that since 1850 alone, more than two million people from around the world have died as a result of tropical revolving storms, but the actual figure is probably far higher as records are incomplete and probably inaccurate.

Typhoon "Jelawat" nears the coastline of Japan in June, 2006. (Image courtesy of NASA - click to enlarge)

In the case of Kublai Khan however, typhoons smashed his military ambitions, and his fearsome Mongol armies, all-conquering through China and Korea, were never able to capture Japan.

President John. F. Kennedy - the Father of World Weather Watch

2010-11-30T06:52:00.030+11:00

One of the most remarkable achievements ever made in the science of meteorology was accomplished not by a scientist, but by a President – in fact the 35th President of the United States, John. F. Kennedy.

Above: President John F. Kennedy (Image: Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

In the late 1950's both Russia and the United States began launching space vehicles, with Russia’s “Sputnik” the first ever fully orbiting satellite. On April 1st 1960 the study of our weather systems was to change forever when the United States launched the worlds first meteorological satellite, TIROS 1, that created a sensation by transmitting television images of weather patterns back to Earth to assist in weather forecasting.

Replica of Sputnik 1 - launched in 1957. (Image: Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

It became obvious that satellites would have a major effect on a whole plethora of human affairs including communication, meteorology, navigation and military issues.

Born in the Cold War era when the United States and the Soviet Union were teetering on the brink of all-out war for more than a decade, many assumed that space would become a hostile zone, an extension of the battlefields far below where the confrontation between east and west would continue.

The first image of the Earth received from TIROS 1. (Image: Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

But in 1961, the US President John F. Kennedy delivered two remarkable speeches – arguably two of the great public speeches of the modern era. They were to change the political landscape of the day and also the science of meteorology.

On January 30th, in his State of the Union address, he stated:

“…….this Administration intends to explore promptly all possible areas of cooperation with the Soviet Union and other nations to invoke the wonders of science instead of its terrors. Specifically, I now invite all nations--including the Soviet Union--to join with us in developing a weather prediction program, in a new communications satellite program and in preparation for probing the distant planets of Mars and Venus, probes which may someday unlock the deepest secrets of the universe”.

Then later in the year, on September 25th, he addressed the United Nations General Assembly:

“And as we extend the rule of law on earth, so must we also extend it to man's new domain, outer space. All of us salute the brave cosmonauts of the Soviet Union. The new horizons of outer space must not be driven by the old bitter concepts of imperialism and sovereign claims. The cold reaches of the universe must not become the new arena of an even colder war. To this end, we shall urge proposals extending the United Nations Charter to the limits of man's exploration in the universe, reserving outer space for peaceful use, prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space or on celestial bodies, and opening the mysteries and benefits of space to every nation. We shall propose, further, cooperative efforts between all the nations in weather prediction and eventually in weather control. We shall propose, finally, a global system of Communications satellites linking the whole world in telegraph and telephone and radio and television. The day need not be far away when such a system will televise the proceedings of this body to every corner of the world for the benefit of peace.”

These resounding and prophetic speeches, together with the major international interest and action that flowed from them, led to the establishment of the World Weather Watch, (WWW) in 1963, under the aegis of the World Meteorological Organisation and resulted in greatly enhanced international cooperation in the collection and processing of weather data.

Remarkably, whilst East and West remained bitterly confrontational on the political field, conducting warfare, espionage and assassination against each other, meteorologists from both sides became friends and colleagues. They attended conferences together, shared knowledge and technology, and established networks for the collection of weather observations from around the world, all for the common good of weather prediction.

As a result, meteorology prospered during the second half of the Twentieth Century, with vast improvements in weather forecasting the immediate result. Detection and effective warning of hurricanes, intense thunderstorms, floods, heat waves, cold outbreaks and all other types of severe weather steadily improved, and the more effective planning of agricultural activities, factoring in the weather, continued to increase our capacity for food production. Ships at sea and commercial aircraft were able to operate more safely as a result of our increased knowledge of the state of the atmosphere.

A hurricane as seen from space.
(NASA image - click to enlarge)

The World Weather Watch remains today as the core of the World Meteorological Organisation's operations. It combines observing systems, telecommunication facilities, data-processing and forecasting products operated by National Meteorological Centres from around the world.

Tropical storm "Katia" photographed on August 31st 2011. (NASA image - click to enlarge)

It is a glowing example of international cooperation, made all the more remarkable by the fact that it was born in the barren political wilderness of the Cold War. All the improvements that resulted from its initiation have continued through to the present day and will do so into the future as an enduring legacy of the Kennedy Administration.

President John F. Kennedy must be therefore regarded as one of the key figures in meteorology of the 20th century, and many meteorologists would regard the World Weather Watch as one of the great achievements of an American President.

See also:

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/02/weather-from-space.html

http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2011/02/most-famous-photograph-of-all.html

References:

http://www.un.org/earthwatch/about/docs/igusland.htm

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/index_en.html

Weather Goes to War - The Battle of Long Tan

2010-11-09T07:50:00.024+11:00

In 1966, decimal currency had arrived in Australia, (see http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2009/07/australian-banknotes-1914-to-1966.html), National Service had been introduced and our Vietnam commitment had grown to Task Force size. But 1966 would always be remembered for an incident that took place later in the year.

In the early afternoon of August 18, 1966, D-Company, 6 RAR, consisting of 108 men, began a routine patrol, moving in a south-easterly direction after leaving the Task Force base at Nui Dat. This formation consisted of 10, 11 and 12 Platoons together with a company headquarters unit.

Above: Nui Dat, as seen in 2010
(Click on image to enlarge)

After a tough time hacking through head high elephant grass the Company fanned out through a rubber plantation near the small deserted village of Long Tan, following two distinctive cart tracks that disappeared into the distance between the rubber trees.

The path D Coy took between Nui Dat and Long Tan - as seen in 2010
(Click on image to enlarge)

Coming across a small pathway at right angles to the line of advance, 11 platoon commenced a tactical crossing, one man at a time, to a further area of rubber trees on the other side of the track.

As Bob Buick, the Sergeant of 11 Platoon, commenced to cross the track he glanced up the hill and was amazed to see a small party of enemy soldiers sauntering down the hill towards him, totally unaware of the presence of the Australians. Instinctively he turned and fired, with two of the enemy falling, but the others immediately grabbed their wounded comrades and melted into the rubber. The Commander of 11 Platoon, Gordon Sharp, then advanced with his men, following up on the retreating enemy wounded.

The pathway where Sergeant Bob Buick first encountered the enemy.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Abruptly, all hell broke loose. The stuttering crackle of enemy AK-47 assault rifles erupted through the rubber together with the staccato bass drumbeat of numerous heavy machine guns. The sharp crack of Australian SLR’s (Self loading rifles) was also audible in the rising din.

Immediately the airwaves sprang to life, as Sharp radioed the Company Commander, Major Harry Smith, advising that his platoon had taken casualties and was pinned down by a larger force.

Smith sent 10 Platoon, under the command of Geoff Kendall, to the left, feeling for the enemy flank, but they too soon came under heavy fire, indicating that the enemy force was a large one.

The battle then escalated, with all three platoons coming under heavy fire as the enemy continued with major frontal assaults and sent smaller probing forces to the left and right, feeling for the Australian flanks. The Australians were pinned down, adopting the classic combat position, prostrate with arms extended forward and firing their rifles.

The site of the Battle of Long Tan as viewed in 2010 (Click on image to enlarge)

A continuous sheet of bullets streaked overhead, only 40 to 50 cm above the ground, making it sudden death to raise the head. Tragically Gordon Sharp was fatally wounded when trying to steal a quick look from a slightly more elevated position. His Sergeant, Bob Buick, then took command of 11 Platoon. See
http://passingparade-2009.blogspot.com/2009/07/scheyville-experiment.html

Then it began to rain. August in Vietnam is part of the wet season, so rain at this time was not unusual, but even by Vietnam standards this was heavy. Thunder and lightning ripped across the battlefield, with nature imitating the conflict below, as torrential rain totally saturated the two opposing forces.

There is no record of how heavy the rain was, but monsoonal activity, combined with slow moving thunderstorms, as was the case here, can produce phenomenal totals in short time intervals. From eye-witness accounts it’s likely that we were looking at rainfall intensities of around 100 mm per hour at Long Tan on that afternoon – enough to produce flash flooding in the surrounding watercourses.

In addition, the rain produced a strange secondary effect. Falling in an intense deluge across the bare red earth beneath the canopy of the rubber plantation, a fine red mist was kicked upwards, rising to a height of around 50 cm, just high enough to conceal the Australians below.

This was of great assistance to the defensive position of the Australians, although the intensity of the attacks continued to mount, particularly on the besieged 11 Platoon who were in real danger of being overrun. Enemy bugle calls floated across the battlefield as light faded and evening set in.

A forward artillery observer, Morrie Stanley, was in the company headquarters group and he directed artillery fire, originating from Nui Dat, some 5 km away, onto the battlefield. Showing great skill and coolness under fire, Stanley accurately directed howitzer fire between the Australians and the enemy, producing a protective curtain of shrapnel that decimated the advancing forces. Deadly rifle fire from the Australians also took a heavy toll.

Running low on ammunition, the Australians requested a resupply by helicopter, and two Iroquois, flying at treetop height and highly exposed to enemy fire, were able to drop desperately needed ammunition down to the besieged diggers below.

An airstrike was also called and US Phantom jets, flying “blind”, dropped a series of bombs about 1500 metres behind the enemy front line disrupting his rear echelons.

US Phantom Jets - Wikipedia Commons. (Click on image to enlarge)

Dave Sabben brought two sections of his 12 Platoon in behind the besieged 11 Platoon, in an attempt to establish a corridor through which they could retreat. In the process 12 Platoon had several skirmishes with the enemy who were trying to encircle Bob Buick and his men.

Showing great bravery under intense fire, Sabben and his men were finally able to clear a pathway for 11 Platoon. Amidst apocalyptic scenes of bursting shells, torrential rain, deafening small arms fire and failing light, 11 Platoon were able to stage a strategic retreat and avoid annihilation. They had been under intense and unremitting small arms fire for more than three hours.

The three Australian Platoons were then able to join up with Company Headquarters to reach a final defensive position. Accurate artillery fire continued to fall on the enemy but such was the extent to which the Australians were outnumbered it appeared as though the position was untenable.

Then, in darkness, several Armoured Personnel Carriers that had been requested by Smith some time before finally arrived on the battlefield. These vehicles had covered the 5 km from Nui Dat, having to cross flooded waterways and muddy tracks en route. With their headlights on and engines roaring they emerged from the gloom and commenced firing on the enemy with 50 calibre heavy machine guns.

An Armoured Personnel Carrier showing the 50 cal machine gun mounted on top. - Wikipedia Commons (Click on image to enlarge)

This signalled a general retreat of the enemy forces who broke contact and melted away into the rubber plantation. The Battle of Long Tan was over.

The official list of casualties later published was

Enemy
• 245 Killed in action (Body Count)
• 3 Captured
• 500 Wounded in action (Subsequent Intelligence estimate)
•
Australian Casualties
• 18 Killed in action
• 25 Wounded in action

Personal details of the Australian fallen can be retrieved from the official 6 RAR website at

http://www.6rarassociation.com/fallenlongtan.htm

The Battle of Long Tan, fought on the afternoon of August 18th 1966, was the most significant action fought in Vietnam by Australian troops. Post analysis by military experts indicates that the Australian victory in the battle probably averted a regimental attack on the Australian Task Force base at nearby Nui Dat that would have had disastrous military and political consequences for Australia at the time.

Long Tan was a model defensive battle in which an Australian infantry company (numbering 108 men) encountered what is now believed to be a regimental sized force comprised of elements of the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) and the Viet Cong, numbering about 2500 men, fighting the much larger sized unit to a standstill and then forcing them to retreat from the battlefield.

It is a story of heroism, skill and poise under fire and the effective use of artillery, air power and armour, all co-ordinated by the officers, sergeants and corporals who fought side by side with the riflemen on that afternoon. It is also an interesting example of how weather can affect a battle, in this case for the good of the Australians.

Major Harry Smith, Lieutenants Sabben and Kendall, together with Sergeant Bob Buick were all decorated for gallantry.

For a fascinating insight into the battle, including interviews with Dave Sabben and Bob Buick, view the following Youtube clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uODWvj8aP-Q&feature=related

Author’s note: During October 2010 I was part of a group that toured the battle site guided by Dave Sabben, one of the two surviving platoon commanders of the battle. Dave took us over the battlefield in real time, recounting the key events and pointing out the main features that shaped the battle, all in the same time interval of the battle itself. It was an awe- inspiring experience and one that I would highly recommend. You can see more details from Dave’s web site at

http://sabben.com

and the travel company that organizes these tours can be found at

http://nntravel.com.au

For a more detailed view of the battle you can access the official account at

http://www.6rarassociation.com/battlelongtan.htm

The Long Tan Cross located at the site where Gordon Sharp was killed.
Dave Sabben has his hand on the cross. (Click on image to enlarge)

References:

Through Enemy Eyes, David Sabben, Allen and Unwin, 2005

All Guts and No Glory, Bob Buick, Allen and Unwin, 2000

The Battle of Long Tan, as told by the Commanders to Bob Grandin, Allen and Unwin, 2004

El Nino and La Nina

2010-09-13T21:21:00.013+10:00

For many centuries Peruvian fishermen were aware of a warm ocean current that periodically appeared around Christmas time along the northwest coast of South America. It was dreaded by the locals because it decimated their main fish catch – the cold water anchovy.

They called this phenomenon El Niño – Spanish for “boy child” – and it was realised in more modern times that this was not just a local event but part of a broad warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters that stretched thousands of kilometres westward from the South American coastline.

Further research into the phenomena showed that El Niño was part of an ocean temperature “see saw” that constantly rocks back and forth across the equatorial Pacific. Normally the sea surface temperatures across the western equatorial Pacific Ocean are much warmer than those in the east because of prevailing winds and ocean currents. However on occasion, this situation is reversed and the El Niño develops.

The El Niño pattern of sea surface temperatures. The thermocline referred to is the line that separates the mixed upper layers of the ocean from the calm, deep waters below.
(Image from Wikipedia Commons)

And, as with most things in nature, there is an opposite phase, and this is when sea surface temperatures cool over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leaving the temperatures over the western Pacific far warmer. This configuration was given the name La Niña – Spanish for “girl child”.

Like the Peruvians with El Niño , the Fijians were aware of La Niña and they related it to the behaviour of the mango tree. They believed when the mango tree flowered early, a bad tropical cyclone season would follow. And there is science behind this observation as the tree will flower early when waters in the surrounding ocean are warmer than normal, and this in turn, promotes tropical cyclone development.

In modern terms we would say the same thing in a different way. That is, during times of La Niña, there is usually increased tropical cyclone frequency over the western Pacific Ocean – a neat convergence of ancient and modern science.

The La Nina pattern of Sea surface temperatures. (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

For much of the time sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are somewhere between an El Niño and a La Niña with cycles between the two occurring in an irregular fashion. When the temperature patterns are between the recognised El Niño and La Niña thresholds, the situation is said to be neutral.

El Niños tend to occur roughly every 3 to 8 years, and typically last for 12 to 18 months. La Niñas or neutral conditions predominate for the rest of the time.

Both these situations have a profound effect on Australian rainfall, including much of eastern Australia. The El Niño is normally associated with drier than average conditions for east and southern parts of the country, whilst La Niña conditions tend to promote above average rainfall over most parts of eastern Australia.

At present La Niña conditions predominate and we have seen a persistence of well above average rainfall over much of inland Australia during the last six months, with record totals falling over northern parts of South Australia, southwest Queensland, much of Victoria and southern parts of the Northern Territory.

At the moment we also have warmer than average sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia, and together with the prevailing La Nina conditions, this increases the possibility of above average rain over much of the continent during the remainder of spring.

Footnote 1: Whilst we have Spanish names for both the opposite phases - El Niño and La Niña – there is no such term for neutral conditions. I’ll bite the bullet and suggest “La Bamba”.

Footnote 2: Since this was originally posted in September 2010, much of eastern Australia has experienced its wettest ever spring and summer in what turned out to be one of the most powerful La Niñas in recent times.

The Crash of the Kyeema

2010-07-15T08:22:00.017+10:00

"Aviation is not inherently dangerous, but to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect"...

- Unknown author

Flying conditions in Australia, when compared to many other parts of the world, are generally very favourable, with such phenomena as gales, blizzards and ice storms far less frequent than we see for example, in Canada, North America and Europe. Victoria is a good case in point, with meteorological conditions usually ideal for flying, and severe weather events relatively uncommon.

But severe weather is not the only way to produce hazardous flying conditions.

In light southerly winds, when the moisture content of the atmosphere is high,

low cloud – called stratus - often drifts in from the ocean across southern Victoria, and can cover extensive areas of the state, often as far north as the Great Dividing Range.

Around Melbourne, because of the comparatively flat terrain, it is usually safe to fly under this cloud, but over in the eastern areas, lie the Dandenong Ranges, and these are often covered in stratus during periods of moist southerly winds. As long as the pilot is accurately aware of the aircraft’s position, encountering cloud-covered terrain should never be an issue. But in the event of a navigational error it becomes a very different story.

Following the loss of the Southern Cloud in 1931, in which lack of communications played a crucial role, two-way radio was progressively installed in passenger carrying aircraft, and this quickly proved itself a real safety contribution.

However for the remainder of the 1930’s, passenger aircraft were still navigated by using manual techniques of estimating ground speed, noting reporting points and maintaining a navigation log, a process that became difficult at night or in thick cloud cover. Unlike the situation today, where pilots are aware of their height, location and speed to within an almost precise accuracy, the manual navigation process usually produced a certain amount of error, depending on the skill and experience of the Captain and First Officer.

But for Captain A. C. Webb and his crew, navigational issues were probably far from their minds as they climbed aboard their aircraft on Tuesday 25^th October 1938, for a routine passenger flight Melbourne to Adelaide and return. They were flying the Kyeema, an Australian National Airways DC2, with the call-sign VH- UYC.

During the 1930’s, the DC2 was a thoroughly modern aircraft. Built by the Douglas Corporation and released in 1933, it was an instant hit with airline companies because of its superior performance and carrying capacity. Powered by two Wright Cyclone engines, each pumping out 875 horsepower, it could carry a crew of three along with fourteen passengers at 320 kph to a height of 6500 metres and over a range of 1600 km. This was a quantum leap forward from the old Stinsons and Avro 10’s of only a few years before.

A DC-2 in flight

(Image: Wikipedia Commons)

The DC2 was the first Douglas aircraft to be purchased by an overseas airline and in 1934 the Dutch company KLM entered one of its DC2’s in the London to Melbourne Air Race. In an astonishing performance, as it raced, it also completed its normal tasks of picking up mail and passengers and ended up flying more than 1600 km further than the race route. It finished second, behind a “one off” specially produced racing aeroplane, in what turned out to be a tremendous promotion for the Douglas Corporation.

The flight undertaken by Webb and his crew, from Melbourne to Adelaide and back, was only a short hop in comparison, and easily within the capabilities of the DC 2. The first leg began with an early morning take off from Melbourne, and proceeded routinely, with the aircraft landing about two and a half hours later at Adelaide.

Flying conditions were generally ideal, although a light southerly wind had produced extensive cloud-cover across the Melbourne basin, extending from the central business district across the eastern suburbs and over the Dandenong Ranges to the east. The base of this cloud – classical stratus formation - was around 450 metres but with lower patches around 250 metres – well above most elevations around Melbourne, but below extensive parts of the Dandenong Ranges which reach above 500 metres. These areas were in cloud for most of the day, under the influence of the cool southerly winds.

After taking aboard fourteen new passengers in Adelaide, the Kyeema turned around, took off on schedule and headed back towards Melbourne, in weather conditions that remained favourable for flying.

Amongst the newly arrived passengers were some notable citizens, including a Member of Parliament, Mr. Charles Hawker, MHR, the noted vigneron, Mr. Johann Gramp who was the managing director of Orlando Wines and the eminent barrister Mr. Leonard Abrahams KC. Also aboard were a honeymoon couple, Hans and Stella Gloe.

The Honourable Mr. Charles Hawker MHR (Image: Wikipedia Commons)

Soon after 1.30 pm Melbourne time, a transmission from Kyeema was received at Essendon Airport, confirming that the aircraft was passing over Daylesford, and about to enter cloud as it began its descent into Melbourne. The estimated time of arrival at Essendon was 1.45 pm. However, after another brief transmission from Kyeema, nothing further was heard, and when the aircraft had not arrived by 2 pm, the authorities became concerned.

In the meantime, near the top of cloud-covered Mount Dandenong, about 32 km to the east of Essendon Airport, two workers were clearing undergrowth from around a roadway. Macarthur Job, in his publication “Air Crash 1” recorded the events as they unfolded:

“In the eerie quietness of the fog enshrouded bush, both men gradually became aware of the distant whine of an aeroplane; the sound was coming from the west, roughly in the direction of Melbourne. And it seemed to be getting louder…. It was a big one all right and it was getting nearer and nearer all the time! The noise continued to grow in intensity; it wasn’t just a whine now. They could hear the powerful throb of the engines as well.

Suddenly, the noise of the engines and propellers was overlaid by a loud screeching; an instant later there was a sickening smashing of metal, then came a tremendous explosion which shook the ground beneath their feet…and a deathly silence”. The Kyeema had flown straight into Mount Corhanwarrabul, close to the main peak of Mount Dandenong.

The summit of Mount Corhanwarrabul. The Kyeema smashed into this peak about 50 metres from the top where the television mast now stands. (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

It was quickly established that all eighteen people aboard had been killed, and an official enquiry was convened at Melbourne’s Exhibition Buildings only three days after the disaster. This had been ordered by the Minister for Defence, Mr. Harold Thorby, as both civil and military aviation then operated under the auspices of the Defence Department.

After detailed deliberations, the inquiry found that the first cause of the disaster was inaccurate navigation. The investigators concluded that Captain Webb and his crew had failed to keep an accurate navigational log, which required them to monitor the speed of the aircraft and note when certain reporting points had been reached. As a result they had probably mistaken Sunbury for Daylesford (they looked similar from above) and were therefore about 32 km nearer Melbourne than they believed when commencing their descent into the deck of stratus.

As Kyeema descended in the overcast, Captain Webb believed he should emerge from the cloud base at around 1.45 pm near Essendon Airport. In fact he had actually flown well past Essendon, invisible below the cloud, and had descended straight into Mount Corhanwarrabul, about 32 km to the east.

The Kyeema overshot Essendon Airport and descended into Mount Corhanwarrabul

Although this represented a gross navigational error, it was also recognised that existing technology could have helped avoid this situation. Radio beacons were already available that provided pilots with a definite course along which to fly, and also enabled an accurate locational “fix” to be obtained.

The public were surprised to learn that a high frequency radio beacon had been installed at Essendon Airport some 18 months before the accident, but had never been made operational. Several experts afterwards claimed that this device, in fully functioning mode, would have prevented the accident.

As a result of the Kyeema disaster, a system of these beacons was installed along the main inter capital city routes, providing pilots with instant and accurate navigational advice.

Another major change that followed was the appointment of so called “Flight Checking Officers” whose job it was to maintain a watch on the progress of flights on the main air routes. This “double check” was to guard against a pilot making a navigational error, as had happened with the Kyeema.

And, in another major change, the Australian aviation governing body, the Civil Aviation Board, part of the Department of Defence, was replaced with the Department of Civil Aviation or DCA.

The Kyeema disaster is now recognised as one of the watershed events of Australian aviation, generating a whole raft of changes that produced a major increase in safety to flying in Australia.

On October 25^th 1978, the 40^th anniversary of the disaster, a memorial plaque was placed on a cairn beside the roadway some 50 metres above the crash site.

The memorial cairn erected in 1978 close to the actual crash site. (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

Engraved on the plaque is the following text:

FIFTY METRES BELOW THIS POINT ON 25 OCT 1938 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AIRWAYS DC-2 ‘KYEEMA’ PLUNGED TO DESTRUCTION WHILE THE MOUNTAIN WAS ENVELOPED IN CLOUD. ALL 18 PERSONS ON BOARD PERISHED.

FROM THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE SUBSEQUENT ENQUIRY HAVE EVOLVED THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS IN USE THROUGHOUT AUSTRALIA TODAY.

THIS PLAQUE, PLACED BY THE MOUNT DANDENONG HISTORICAL SOCIETY WITH ASSISTANCE FROM O. GRAMP & SONS, THOS. HARDY & SONS, S. SMITH & SON, AUSTRALIAN FEDERATION OF AIR PILOTS AND FORESTS COMMISSION OF VICTORIA WAS UNVEILED ON 25 OCT 1978 TO MARK THE 40th ANNIVERSARY OF THE DISASTER.

This memorial reminds us of the price we have had to pay for safe flying in Australia – as well as the ever-present need for accurate navigation in all airline operations.

Reference: "The Complete Book of Australian Weather", Richard Whitaker, Allen and Unwin, 2010

The Forecast for D-Day

2010-05-26T07:43:00.016+10:00

During the early months of 1944, the allied forces, under Supreme Commander General Dwight D. Eisenhower, had begun to get the upper hand in the battle with Nazi

Germany, and plans were put in progress to invade occupied Europe using a massive sea-borne army launched from England.

Above - The Supreme Commander of the Allies, 5-Star General Dwight D. Eisenhower. (Image - Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

This assault force would have to cross the English Channel before landing at several beachheads along the French coast near Normandy. The entire military operation was given the code name “Overlord” and the first day of the invasion was to be called “D-Day”.

The timing of the operation was paramount – for military reasons it had to be a time of full moon and spring tide which immediately defined several windows of opportunity that could be accurately predicted from astronomical and tide tables.

However, the other variable, weather, was not so easily predicted. If rough conditions developed whilst the invading armada was at sea, an absolute disaster could have followed. In particular, the landing barges, crammed with troops, were vulnerable to capsize in even moderate seas, and soldiers in full combat gear and carrying weapons, would have little chance. Eisenhower was acutely aware that in such circumstances, his massive army of some 200,000 troops could be decimated before even reaching the battlefield.

Predicting the weather on possible invasion dates therefore became of paramount importance. The period 4, 5 and 6^th June 1944 were periods of full moon and spring tides, and therefore became the focus for the weather forecasting team.

Predicting the weather in 1944 was much more difficult than today. There were no meteorological satellites, no computer simulations, and no organised network of automatic weather stations, as we see today. In addition, there was no international exchange of weather information because it was a time of warfare and weather conditions were classified as “secret”.

Meteorologists of the day relied mostly on “analogue” forecasting methodology. This consisted of

(a) Preparing today's weather map by delineating all the “highs”, “lows” and cold fronts.

(b) Manually searching the archives to find another similar map from the past.

(d) Assume the same would happen tomorrow.

The main problem with analogue forecasting was that it took little account of what was happening in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It was common to have two weather maps that were very similar but with different patterns in the upper winds, and this resulted in quite different weather to follow.

The forecasting team assembled comprised the top meteorologists from several countries. Group Captain James Martin Stagg, Superintendant of the Kew Observatory before the war was the head meteorologist, and he led the daily weather briefings that were held in the run-up to the invasion day.

The Allies Head of Meteorology, Group Captain James. M. Stagg

(Image from Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

The American team included the well-known weathermen Benny Holzman and Irving Crick. The British had Charles Douglas, who was well known for his photographic memory of past weather events, and there was the brilliant Norwegian Sverre Pettersen, one of the foremost synoptic meteorologists of the day. In addition, experts from the Royal Navy were added to the team.

As the 4^th June approached, Stagg advised Eisenhower that there was a strong low-pressure cell located over the North Sea and that gale force westerly winds were likely over the invasion area. Stagg considered that the 4^th and 5^th would be too rough to attempt a crossing. After considerable consultation between the senior military officers and the meteorological team it was decided not to launch on either day.

The weather map for 9am on June 6, 1944. The invasion area was under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure, but with a deep low to the north.

The red arrows indicate the direction from which the wind was blowing. (Click to enlarge)

But Stagg and his weathermen then gradually reached agreement that the 6^th may be suitable. The invasion area would lie between the strong “low” to the north and a weak high-pressure ridge that extended across Spain and southern France. The meteorological team considered that the influence of the high would be just strong enough to produce a temporary moderation in the weather. But it would be a close call – if the low moved even slightly southwards conditions across the channel could quickly collapse into gales and rough seas.

Eisenhower was faced with making one of the biggest decisions in history – stay or go in a marginal situation. His force was ready – a postponement would mean thousands of men would have to disembark, return to their land based units and wait for the next window of opportunity, increasing the chance of German readiness. To go would place his army at the mercy of a razor edge weather situation. He gave the order to go and 200,000 men went into action.

General Morgan, Eisenhower’s Chief of Staff, remarked to Stagg at the time

"Good luck Stagg: may all your depressions be nice little ones: but remember, we'll string you up from the nearest lamp post if you don't read the omens aright."

History reveals that the decision was the right one. The Germans had considered that the weather was too rough to attempt an invasion and were not on full alert and the allied forces were able to successfully cross the channel and establish beachheads. D Day was a resounding military victory and the Germans were put into a retreat that would ultimately lead to the collapse of the Third Reich in 1945.

American troops storm ashore from a landing craft, June 6th 1944

(Image - Wikipedia Commons - click to enlarge)

Interestingly the weather during the next window of opportunity, some two weeks later, was a disaster, with one of the worst summer storms in decades raging across the Channel. Eisenhower later confided to Stagg “I thank the Gods of War that we went when we did.”

General Dwight D. Eisenhower went on to become one of the most successful American Generals in history and ended the war a national hero. He became the 34th President of the United States and finally passed away, a revered figure, in 1969.

James Martin Stagg returned to civilian life after the war and became Director of the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office. He was knighted in 1954 and as Sir J.M. Stagg was elected as President of the Royal Meteorological Society in 1959. He lived on until 1975 and goes down in history as one of the key meteorologists of the 20^th century.

Reference: The Forecast for Overlord, J. M. Stagg, Ian Allen, 1971.